Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares started 2026 with a strong performance, and technology stocks are expected to remain the main theme in the near term. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [1][22]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, indicating a further weakening of the real economy and a short - term decline in the US dollar [2][16]. - The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the impact is limited. There may be short - term selling pressure due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [3][12]. - The cotton market is currently dominated by capital, and there is a risk of a decline if capital exits [4][33]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the increase in iron - water production putting pressure on finished - product inventories [5][36]. - Copper prices may fluctuate upward, mainly driven by macro - sentiment, while the fundamentals are currently inconsistent with the price increase [6][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US may subsidize the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil infrastructure. The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the short - term impact is limited. The adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight will bring short - term selling pressure. The 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the inventory component [11][12]. - Investment advice: The short - term price of precious metals will fluctuate, and there is a risk of a decline. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - AI is causing large enterprises to slow down their recruitment. The US ISM manufacturing index hit a one - year low, with the index falling from 48.2 in November to 47.9 and remaining below the 50 mark for the 10th consecutive month. Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court. - The US real economy is further weakening, and the US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly shrank, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month, weak export orders, and a continued decline in employment. The overall index was mainly dragged down by the accelerated inventory decline. - Fed official Kashkari said the US interest rate is close to the neutral level. The geopolitical risk has limited impact on the US stock market, and the three major stock indexes rose. The US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong [18][19]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward manner, and a long - position approach is recommended [20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares started 2026 with a strong performance, with nearly 4,200 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38%, and the trading volume increased. Nine departments jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption. - The market sentiment is high, and technology stocks are expected to be the main theme. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [21][22]. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures and allocate evenly among different stock indexes [23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 135 - million - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 46.88 billion yuan. - The bond market has been weak recently due to multiple factors. The new fee regulations are beneficial to the bond market, but they cannot change the current situation of many macro and micro negatives. The bond market is facing an unfavorable situation at the beginning of 2026, with potential risks of decline if economic indicators exceed expectations [24][25]. - Investment advice: Consider short - hedging strategies and maintain a certain short - hedging position [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the first week of 2026, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, while the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased. In December 2025, about 9.0968 million tons of imported soybeans arrived at domestic oil mills, and about 2.301 million tons arrived in the first week of 2026. - The international soybean market has not changed much, and the domestic soybean meal supply - demand situation remains weak. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [27][28]. - Investment advice: If South American soybeans have a good harvest, the May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. Continue to monitor national reserve and customs policies [29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's textile and clothing imports decreased, and the imports from China decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. India's cotton production is expected to decline by 1.7% in the 2026 cotton year, and the revenue and profit of related enterprises are also expected to decline. The spot cotton market has a cold trading atmosphere, and ginneries are reluctant to sell at low prices. - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile trend on January 5. The technical and market sentiment are still bullish, but there is a risk of a decline if capital exits due to factors such as the deterioration of cotton yarn production profits and poor price transmission [30][31][33]. - Investment advice: Be vigilant against the risk of a decline if capital exits [34]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Vietnam continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese cold - rolled carbon steel coils for five years, with the tax rate remaining between 4.43% and 25.22%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The increase in iron - water production will put pressure on finished - product inventories, and the change in exports also needs attention [35][36]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile approach to steel prices in the short term [37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high in December due to strong production and weak exports. - The palm oil market was weak. The market is expected to see a gradual relief of supply pressure with the continued production reduction in January and the start of Ramadan stocking. - Investment advice: Wait for the signal of supply - pressure relief in January and then gradually build long positions in the May contract [38][39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 5, the price difference between imported steam coal and domestic steam coal was reported. Some traders are optimistic about the short - term coal price and are reluctant to sell, but there are few transactions in the market. - After a continuous decline in December, coal prices stabilized before the New Year's Day. The coal consumption is in a negative - growth state, and the supply side may change. Attention should be paid to whether coal mines will actively reduce production in January [41]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the coal - mine start - up situation in January [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, more than 11.5 million vehicles were traded in the "trade - in" program. - The iron - ore market remains volatile. With the stabilization of iron - water production in January and low inventory in downstream steel mills, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the steel - mill restocking situation in January [43]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the steel - mill restocking situation in January [44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In the statistical period from December 22 to December 28, 2025, the weighted average price of photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/watt compared with the previous period. The polysilicon transaction price increased, and the production schedule began to decline. - In January, the polysilicon production is expected to be about 105,000 tons, and the sales quota is about 60,000 tons. Although the production is still in surplus, the actual supply is less than the demand in terms of the sales quota. The polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [45][46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. Be cautious when holding positions due to large market fluctuations and regulatory measures [47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guide to promote the high - quality development of the power grid. In the previous week, industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Sichuan decreased, and the inventory increased. The production cuts in January may lead to a tight balance, but if the cuts are not sustainable, there will be a large - scale inventory accumulation in 2026. - Some large factories started hedging sales after the price increase, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [48][49]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [49]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The new solid - waste management regulations will affect the approval of non - ferrous metal beneficiation projects. The Chilean government is trying to resolve a copper mine strike. The global data center's copper consumption is expected to increase to 740,000 tons in 2026. - Macro - factors continue to support copper prices, but the fundamentals are inconsistent with the price increase in the short term. The domestic copper inventory is expected to increase in January, which will limit the price increase [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: On the long - only side, it is recommended to buy on dips; on the arbitrage side, it is recommended to wait and see [53]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Jien Nickel's 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project in Pan Shi was put into operation. Due to the non - approval of the nickel - ore RKAB quota in 2026, Vale Indonesia's nickel - ore mining in some areas was suspended. - The suspension has little short - term impact on the supply and demand, but it shows that Indonesia's raw - material supply is tightening. The current price is close to the full cost of NPI, and if the price remains high, some production may resume. The refined - nickel production in January is expected to increase [55][56]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls, and closely monitor the quota release [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials plans to conduct a 20 - 30 - day maintenance on its 150,000 - ton liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line. - The lithium - carbonate futures price continued to rise. The market is sensitive to positive news. The inventory reduction slowed down last week, the production increased, and the downstream demand is weak. There is a risk of a short - term correction [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Existing long - position holders can gradually take profits. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the medium term [60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Ganfeng Lithium's 2.4 - million - ton/year lithium - tin polymetallic mine in Inner Mongolia has been approved, and the mining equipment is being delivered. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The tin - ore supply is still tight, and the demand is weak. The spot market trading is average [60][61][62]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the supply recovery and demand improvement, and be vigilant against the price decline when the capital enthusiasm fades [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US Energy Secretary plans to meet with oil industry leaders to discuss the "restart" of Venezuela's energy sector. - The oil price first fell and then rose. The change in the Venezuelan situation had little impact on the oil price. There is a high risk of a short - term production decline in Venezuela, and it is difficult to reverse the long - term production decline in the short term. The market has not fully priced in the supply surplus [64][65]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of geopolitical conflicts [66]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of January 4, the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The US attack on Venezuela led to the suspension of Venezuelan oil exports and production, strengthening the cost support for asphalt. - The asphalt price was boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may gradually decline [66][67]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may fade away [67]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable on January 5. The supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, and the downstream demand was weak. - The caustic - soda futures price fell significantly. The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers decreased at the end of 2025. The urea price fluctuated upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is weak. India's urea tender and the supply reduction in Iran support the international urea price. - The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the inventory - reduction rate may slow down in the future. Do not chase the rise now. Pay attention to the spring - plowing fertilizer - stocking demand and export - policy changes after the New Year [71][72][73]. - Investment advice: Do not chase the rise now. Consider long - position opportunities after the New Year when there is a certain safety margin [73]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of January 5, 2026, the pure - benzene inventory in East China ports increased. The pure - benzene market has a high inventory problem, and the demand depends on the restart and load increase of downstream styrene plants. The styrene market is affected by export news and maintenance, and it is expected to be difficult to strengthen further. - The pure - benzene market is expected to remain in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [74][75][76]. - Investment advice: The pure - benzene market is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [76].
A股取得开门红，美国ISM制造业指数创一年最低点
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2026-01-06 00:41