金信期货日刊-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - There are five core reasons to be bullish on the glass main contract, including supply contraction, cost support, demand improvement, clear technical rebound signals, and continuous release of policy dividends [2][3][4] - In 2026, the A - share market had a good start with all indices rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index had 12 consecutive positive days. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact, and it is recommended to continue to buy on dips [6] - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is advised when participating in the gold market [10] - For iron ore, with the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. Demand is weak except for exports, and it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation trading strategy [13][14] - For glass, the daily melting volume is slightly decreasing, inventory has accumulated this week, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged [16][17] - For methanol, international supply risks are increasing, January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are mainly oscillating upward [19] - For paper pulp, the inventory at the mainstream Chinese ports has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and an oscillating trend is predicted [21] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Reasons to be Bullish on Glass Futures - Supply contraction: Industry losses are forcing capacity out. As of January 1, the float - glass industry's start - up rate was 72.05%, a 1.59 - percentage - point drop from December 25. Capacity utilization decreased by 1.53% to 75.73%, daily output dropped by 1.99% to 15.15 tons, and weekly output was 107.33 tons, down 0.99% week - on - week and 3.38% year - on - year [3] - Cost support: The current price is approaching the cash - flow cost range of 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and raw material prices are stable, providing strong cost support [3] - Demand improvement: In 2026, the decline in real - estate completion has narrowed to positive growth. Infrastructure special bonds and green building materials policies are driving demand, and emerging sectors such as photovoltaic and automotive glass have growing demand, and the export market is expanding [3] - Technical signals: The price has broken through the downward trend line, stood above the 20 - day moving average, the MACD has formed a golden cross with an expanding red column, and the 4 - hour level support is stable, showing an oscillating and bullish pattern [4] - Policy dividends: The "14th Five - Year Plan" infrastructure development, green building standard upgrades, and capacity replacement policies are expected to shift the industry from destocking to restocking, and a supply - demand gap may appear after the second quarter, with strong expectations of a recovery in industry prosperity [4] 3.2 Technical Analysis of Different Futures 3.2.1 A - share Index Futures - The A - share market had a good start in 2026, with all indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index had 12 consecutive positive days. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact. In the short - term, there may be an adjustment after a morning rally tomorrow, but the long - term trend is good. It is recommended to continue to buy on dips [6] 3.2.2 Gold Futures - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is advised when participating in the gold market [10] 3.2.3 Iron Ore Futures - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the supply is expected to be more abundant. Demand is weak except for exports. Technically, it is recommended to maintain a wide - range oscillation trading strategy, buying at lows and selling at highs [13][14] 3.2.4 Glass Futures - Technically, there was a slight adjustment today, and the low - buying strategy remains unchanged. The daily melting volume is slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for capacity reduction on the supply side [16][17] 3.2.5 Methanol Futures - In terms of imports, some port arrivals have been delayed, most Iranian facilities have stopped, and international geopolitical risks have increased. It is expected that imports in January will decline. For downstream olefins, some port olefin facilities will stop until January, and new facilities in Shandong are being put into operation. Overall, international supply risks are increasing, January imports are expected to decline, and short - term prices are mainly oscillating upward [19] 3.2.6 Paper Pulp Futures - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese paper - pulp ports was 190.6 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous period, a 4.4% month - on - month decline. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and an oscillating trend is predicted [21]