贵金属：贵金属日报2026-01-06-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The weak US manufacturing PMI data released last night strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent loose monetary policy. Coupled with the overseas geopolitical issues further impacting the US dollar credit system, the prices of gold and silver strengthened in the short - term. The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2 [1]. - The CME has raised the margin level for precious metal trading twice in the week of December 31. Recalling the sharp rise in silver prices in 2011, the CME raised the margin for precious metal trading six times (starting from March 2011), causing the silver price to drop significantly after reaching a historical high of $49.7 per ounce. Precious metals are likely to face suppression from the Fed's "inactivity" in January next year and experience a short - term significant correction, but this does not mean the end of the current upward cycle of gold and silver. [2] - The Trump administration still has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections. The Fed will eventually enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially steps down. However, in the short term, the current prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines in the context of large fluctuations and not to open new long or short positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 1024 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 15340 - 19998 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.93% to 1001.60 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 3.17% to 18745.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at $4459.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at $76.51 per ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.17%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.33 [1]. - The spot silver - related data has rebounded. The one - month silver lease rate has risen to 10.25%. The EFP rate shows that the price of London silver has strengthened relative to the price of New York silver again, and the import premium of silver in India has also increased significantly [1]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was $4459.70 per ounce, up 2.71% from the previous day, with a historical percentile of 98.01% in the past year. The trading volume was 207,100 lots, up 38.61%. The CFTC - reported open interest was 481,900 lots, down 2.08%. The inventory was 1132 tons, unchanged. The closing price of LBMA gold was $4456.40 per ounce, up 2.38%. The closing price of the active SHFE gold contract was 995.00 yuan/gram, up 1.78%. The trading volume was 191,000 lots, down 56.18%. The open interest was 312,800 lots, down 0.54%. The inventory was 97.70 tons, unchanged. The settled funds were 49.791 billion yuan, up 1.24%. The closing price of AuT + D was 992.63 yuan/gram, up 1.87%. The trading volume was 44.01 tons, down 35.00%. The open interest was 208.54 tons, down 7.83% [4][5]. - Silver: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was $76.51 per ounce, up 5.87%, with a historical percentile of 99.18% in the past year. The CFTC - reported open interest was 157,400 lots, up 1.08%. The inventory was 13,982 tons, down 0.06%. The closing price of LBMA silver was $75.07 per ounce, up 1.15%. The closing price of the active SHFE silver contract was 18,247.00 yuan/kilogram, up 6.87%. The trading volume was 1,079,300 lots, down 72.20%. The open interest was 638,400 lots, down 0.39%. The inventory was 669.55 tons, down 3.19%. The settled funds were 31.451 billion yuan, up 6.45%. The closing price of AgT + D was 18,319.00 yuan/kilogram, up 7.39%. The trading volume was 657.43 tons, down 9.74%. The open interest was 2,941.532 tons, up 0.35% [4][5]. 3.3 Price and Volume Charts - There are multiple charts showing the relationship between the price and volume of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as the relationship between gold and silver prices and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and the net long positions of managed funds [7][10][11][23][25][27][41]. 3.4 Price Structure and Spread - The report provides information on the near - far month price structure of COMEX gold and silver, Shanghai gold and silver, as well as the internal and external price spreads of gold and silver [20][21][29][36][48]. For example, on January 5, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX spread of gold was - 7.80 yuan/gram, and that of silver was 1320.56 yuan/kilogram [48].