节后农业板块震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - View: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - Logic: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - View: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - Logic: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - View: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - Logic: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - View: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - Logic: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - Logic: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - Logic: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - View: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - Logic: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - View: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - Logic: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - View: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - Logic: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - View: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - Logic: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - View: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - Logic: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]