供应担忧继续，碳酸锂领涨新能源金属

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, due to continued concerns about supply disruptions, new energy metals may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to shrink, and the price center may rise. For lithium ore, although the production capacity is increasing, the demand expectation is also rising, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Industrial Silicon - Viewpoint: Weak supply - demand drivers, silicon prices fluctuate with sentiment. - Information Analysis: As of January 5, the spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 in East China were 9,250 yuan/ton, and 421 were 9,650 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The latest domestic industrial silicon social inventory was 557,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. By December 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 397,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. The cumulative production from January to December was 4.268 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,888 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The cumulative export from January to November was 660,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 22GW, a month - on - month increase of 75% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. The cumulative newly added installed capacity from January to November was 275GW, a year - on - year increase of 33% [7]. - Main Logic: Fundamentally, on the supply side, some silicon plants in the north shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, and the supply pressure from the northwest in January may be slightly relieved. The dry season continues in the southwest, and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have dropped to a low level. On the demand side, polysilicon is still in the dry season in January, with weak demand for industrial silicon. If polysilicon implements quota production, it is difficult to boost the demand for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises cut production to support prices, and the current production of organic silicon continues to decline, suppressing the demand for industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased at the end of the year, with limited boost to the demand for industrial silicon. In terms of inventory, the industry inventory increased slightly last week, and there is still some pressure on the overall inventory. Overall, the supply pressure of industrial silicon has been relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand has weakened simultaneously, and the fundamental situation remains weak [7]. - Outlook: The supply - demand of industrial silicon itself is weak. Considering the repeated coal prices and market sentiment, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile [7]. Polysilicon - Viewpoint: Strong expectation vs. weak reality, polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. - Information Analysis: According to the data from the Silicon Industry Association, in the week of January 5, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. On January 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 4,030 lots, unchanged from the previous value. In November, China's polysilicon export volume was about 3,230 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 23,445 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32%. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was about 1,055 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62%. From January to November 2025, the import volume was 17,178 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. The newly added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to November 2025 was 274.89GW, a year - on - year increase of 33%. The cumulative newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December 2024 was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28%. A polysilicon platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" brand of Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd. and "Eastern Hope" brand of Xinjiang Eastern Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. as registered brands for polysilicon futures [7][8]. - Main Logic: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of polysilicon storage has heated up again, and the polysilicon price continues to be highly volatile under the strong expectation and weak reality. In terms of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest has gradually decreased, and the production in November dropped below 120,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, the constraints of anti - involution policies on polysilicon supply need to be monitored. On the demand side, the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but it also over - consumed the demand for installation in the second half of the year. The single - month domestic photovoltaic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, and the installed capacity further declined from July to September. The domestic installation began to stabilize from October to November. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports, the demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November [8]. - Outlook: Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile and upward - trending [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Viewpoint: Strong market sentiment combined with supply concerns led to a sharp rise in lithium prices at the beginning of the year. - Information Analysis: On January 5, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 6.91% to 129,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 46,410 lots to 960,951 lots. On January 5, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 117,000 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 1,535 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 0 lots to 20,281 lots. On January 4, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a notice stating that the security situation in Mali is complex and severe, and some Chinese - funded enterprises have lithium ore projects in Mali. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", stating that in principle, new beneficiation projects without self - built mines or supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities will not be approved. On January 5, Guangzhou Tianci announced that it plans to shut down and maintain the 150,000 - ton/year liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line at the Longshan North Base from March 1, 2026, with an expected maintenance time of 20 - 30 days [9][10]. - Main Logic: Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the supply remains at a high level. Market sentiment has a significant impact on prices. Several leading material factories are undergoing centralized maintenance in January, which will lead to a decrease in demand and have a negative impact. However, maintenance may affect the order negotiations between material factories and downstream enterprises, which can indirectly test the demand level. Overall, the maintenance of material factories in January will definitely lead to weakening demand and an increased certainty of inventory accumulation. However, against the background of strong capital sentiment and an optimistic long - term outlook, the price is expected to remain in a strong and volatile pattern. In addition, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" issued by the State Council may affect the pace of production capacity release, and geopolitical issues in Mali and South America also pose challenges to supply. In summary, although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening, the long - term outlook is good, supply disruptions occur frequently, and the price is mainly in a strong and volatile pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [10]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile pattern [10]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content provided for in - depth analysis. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - Comprehensive Index: The special index includes the commodity index (2330.50, +0.00%), the commodity 20 index (2664.63, +0.00%), the industrial products index (2267.44, +0.00%), and the PPI commodity index (1410.29, +0.00%). - Plate Index: The new energy commodity index on January 5, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.00%, a 5 - day decrease of - 3.61%, a 1 - month increase of +14.05%, and a year - to - date increase of +0.00% [52][53].