地缘局势仍有不确定性，供应减量担忧提振沥?和甲醇

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is continuously affected by geopolitical factors, with oil prices remaining volatile. The overall chemical sector is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern. - Different products in the energy and chemical industry show varying trends. For example, asphalt prices have surged due to political unrest in Venezuela, while low - sulfur fuel oil prices have declined. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Crude Oil - Viewpoint: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices remain volatile. - Main Logic: Global land - based crude oil inventories have declined in the past 4 weeks, but floating storage inventories have risen. US refined product inventories are increasing. OPEC+ has a stable production outlook for Q1, and geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the key factors affecting supply expectations. - Outlook: Short - term volatility is expected due to fluctuating geopolitical premiums. [8] Asphalt - Viewpoint: Political unrest in Venezuela has driven up asphalt futures prices. - Main Logic: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. Political instability in Venezuela has led to expectations of raw material shortages, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued. [8][9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. - Main Logic: OPEC+ suspending production increases, energy crisis expectations in Iraq, and tight heavy - oil supply are positive factors. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by other energy sources are long - term negative factors. - Outlook: Supply and demand are weak. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Viewpoint: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward. - Main Logic: Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. - Outlook: It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but with low valuation, it will fluctuate with crude oil. [11] PX - Viewpoint: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and prices are consolidating at a high level. - Main Logic: Cost support is insufficient, but the restart of PTA devices in January has increased the direct demand for PX. - Outlook: Prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range in the short term, and the profit margin can be maintained. [12] PTA - Viewpoint: TA processing fees are at the upper end of the range, and the room for continuous increase is limited. - Main Logic: Oil prices are weak, cost support is insufficient, and the supply of PTA is increasing while downstream polyester load may decline. - Outlook: Prices will oscillate with costs, and processing fees are under pressure. [13][14] Pure Benzene - Viewpoint: The accumulation of inventory pressure is still being realized, with differences in expectations, and trading is mainly based on reality. - Main Logic: Spot prices are slightly supported by downstream exports and strong US - dollar prices, but the fundamentals are still weak. There is room for improvement in the far - month supply - demand situation. - Outlook: Inventory and demand restrict the upside, and the external market provides short - term support. [15][16] Styrene - Viewpoint: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. - Main Logic: Cost support is weak, but new export deals and a positive commodity atmosphere are beneficial. However, it is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation. - Outlook: There is an obvious upside limit, and exports can stimulate short - term rebounds. [17][18] Ethylene Glycol - Viewpoint: The implementation of polyester production cuts is gradually taking effect, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average. - Main Logic: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and although overseas device maintenance may reduce imports, the inventory accumulation pattern cannot be reversed. - Outlook: Prices will remain in a range in the short term, and the upside is limited due to long - term inventory pressure. [19][21] Short - Fiber - Viewpoint: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. - Main Logic: Cost support is strong, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has increased during the holiday. - Outlook: Prices are oscillating. [22] Bottle Chip - Viewpoint: There are more device overhauls in January, and the basis is firm. - Main Logic: Prices are adjusting downward during the day and rebounding at night. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and overhauls in January may improve the situation. - Outlook: Prices will follow raw materials, and processing fees have stronger support below. [24] Methanol - Viewpoint: Frequent overseas disturbances, methanol is oscillating strongly. - Main Logic: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but overseas disturbances such as the situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect imports. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias. [27][28] Urea - Viewpoint: Post - holiday transactions are active, and urea is stable with an upward bias. - Main Logic: Supply is stable, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, commercial storage, and industrial sectors has increased. - Outlook: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand may be boosted in the short term, but the upside is limited. [28][29] LLDPE - Viewpoint: Maintenance support is limited, and LLDPE should be viewed as oscillating. - Main Logic: Oil prices are oscillating, the fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly improved, but demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. [31] PP - Viewpoint: Slight increase in maintenance, PP is oscillating. - Main Logic: Oil prices are oscillating, downstream demand is in the off - season, and short - term maintenance has increased. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. [32] PL - Viewpoint: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL is oscillating. - Main Logic: PDH maintenance expectations are positive, but downstream demand is in the off - season. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation. [33] PVC - Viewpoint: Overseas device shutdowns have led to a strong rebound in PVC. - Main Logic: Geopolitical factors may boost sentiment, and overseas device shutdowns and domestic production cost changes are positive for supply. - Outlook: Supported by supply improvement expectations, PVC will run strongly. [34] Caustic Soda - Viewpoint: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. Caustic soda should be viewed with caution and a downward bias. - Main Logic: Supply is in excess, demand is weak, and costs are decreasing. - Outlook: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. The downward space is limited. [35] 3.2品种数据监测 3.2.1能化⽇度指标监测 - 跨期价差: Different varieties show different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.02, while that of Dubai is - 0.11 with a change of - 0.19. [37] - 基差和仓单: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 63 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipts are 24920. [38] - 跨品种价差: Spreads between different varieties have different trends. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 423 with a change of - 43. [40] 3.2.2化⼯基差及价差监测 No specific data summaries are provided in the text for this part.