Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Market Information: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - Strategy Viewpoint: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - Market Information: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - Market Information: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - Market Information: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - Market Information: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - Market Information: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - Market Information: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - Market Information: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - Market Information: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - Market Information: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - Market Information: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - Market Information: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - Strategy Viewpoint: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - Market Information: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - Market Information: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - Market Information: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026-01-06-20260106
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-01-06 01:11