弱美元与地缘政治风险发酵，铂钯走势偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Weak US dollar and geopolitical risks have led to strong trends in platinum and palladium prices. The supply - demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium are healthy, and with positive macro - expectations, their prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. However, short - term price volatility is high, and investors should trade cautiously. Appropriate arbitrage strategies are also recommended [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary Based on Related Content Platinum - Price Performance: On January 5, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 583.95 yuan/gram, with a 6.48% increase [3] - Main Logic: Trump's potential replacement of the Fed chair and the US military's raid in Venezuela have increased geopolitical risks, intensifying price fluctuations. The premium between the domestic closing time of the GFEX platinum main contract and NYMEX platinum (tax - included) has significantly converged. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity [3] - Outlook: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and with positive macro - expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upwards. Short - term price volatility is high, and investors should trade cautiously. They can look for low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage, it is recommended to take profits on long domestic and short overseas positions and wait for the platinum - palladium spread to converge before considering long platinum and short palladium [3][4] Palladium - Price Performance: On January 5, 2026, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 452.85 yuan/gram, with an 8.88% increase [3] - Main Logic: The geopolitical issue in Russia is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into unforged palladium imported from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle provide support for the palladium price [5] - Outlook: Spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment are expected to drive the palladium price to fluctuate upwards. Short - term price volatility is high, and investors should trade cautiously. They can look for low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage, it is recommended to take profits on long domestic and short overseas positions and choose the right time to participate in long platinum and short palladium [5] Commodity Index - Special Index: The commodity index was 2330.50, with a 0.00% change; the commodity 20 index was 2664.63, with a 0.00% change; the industrial products index was 2267.44, with a 0.00% change; the PPI commodity index was 1410.29, with a 0.00% change [53] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metal index on January 5, 2026, was 2685.97. The daily change was 0.00%, the change in the past 5 days was + 0.35%, the change in the past month was + 5.67%, and the change since the beginning of the year was 0.00% [54]