股市节后?涨，债市表现分化

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Stock Index Futures: The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points. The Spring Rally may start earlier, led by institutional funds. The ChiNext and STAR Market, along with the CSI 500 index, are expected to perform well before the Two Sessions [1][7]. - Stock Index Options: After the holiday, the underlying market continued the pre - holiday optimism. Option trading volume was stable, and the implied volatility declined. A covered - call strategy can be continued [2][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market showed a differentiated performance. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The short - end is supported, while the ultra - long - end may face uncertainties [3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: On Monday, the equity market closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 4000 points. The STAR Market led the gains, and the trading volume reached 2.57 trillion yuan. The CSI 500 index broke through its previous high [1][7]. - Data: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed. The total open interest of each contract increased [7]. - Outlook: The Spring Rally may start earlier, and growth - style stocks are expected to lead. It is recommended to hold IC contracts [7]. - Stock Index Options - Market Performance: The underlying market rose across the board, and the total option trading volume reached 9799 million yuan, up 41.46% from the previous day. The trading ratio of call and put options was stable, and the implied volatility declined [2][7]. - Strategy: A covered - call strategy can be continued [2][7]. - Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. Most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, and the spot bond yields showed a differentiated trend [3][7][8]. - Data: The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts decreased. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of each contract changed [7][8]. - Policy Impact: The central bank's net injection of 253.2 billion yuan was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The "Two New" policy was issued to support economic growth [3][8]. - Outlook: The central bank's attitude is favorable for the short - end, while the ultra - long - end may be affected by interest - rate cut and supply expectations. Trend strategy: range - bound; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis; Basis strategy: pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: the curve may remain steep [7][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week include China's December SPGI Services PMI (released, reaching 52), China's December foreign exchange reserves, US December ADP employment change, Eurozone November unemployment rate, Eurozone December economic sentiment index, China's December CPI and PPI annual rates, US December non - farm payrolls change, and US January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - Pension: The long - term assessment of the over 700 billion yuan annuity fund is being promoted, which will encourage long - term investment and attract more medium - and long - term funds into the market [11]. - Geopolitical: In the US military action against Venezuela, 32 Cuban citizens died. The Cuban President expressed condolences to the families of the victims [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - Stock Index Futures Data: Not provided in the content - Stock Index Options Data: Not provided in the content - Treasury Bond Futures Data: Not provided in the content