宝城期货国债期货早报（2026年1月6日）-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Treasury bond futures to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, with upper pressure and lower support. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still medium - to - long - term expectations of monetary policy easing [1][5] 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening". The reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly retraced. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts in 2026, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short - term, the macro data shows strong resilience, reducing the urgency of monetary policy easing. Coupled with the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter, the momentum for the rebound of Treasury bond futures is weak [5]