国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with a battle between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation [2][4]. - Stainless steel is dragged down by the real - world fundamentals, and the trading on the disk mainly focuses on Indonesia's policies [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to shift upwards due to concerns about supply contraction and positive demand expectations [2][8]. - Industrial silicon shows a weak fundamental pattern [2]. - Polysilicon will oscillate at a high level, and investors should pay attention to the impact of news [2][11]. 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 134,100 yuan, and the trading volume was 366,893 lots. For the stainless - steel main contract, the closing price was 13,075 yuan, and the trading volume was 175,949 lots. There were also detailed data on various nickel - related products such as 1 imported nickel, Russian nickel premium, etc. [4] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, and plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities. The 2026 nickel ore production target is to be significantly reduced. There are also issues such as steel product export license management in China and Indonesian mining companies' illegal occupation of forest land [4][5][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [7] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 127,000 yuan, and the trading volume was 2,806 lots. There were also data on the 2605 contract, basis, raw materials, lithium salts, and related products in the lithium - battery industry chain [8] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. The State Council issued a solid - waste management plan, and Tianci Materials announced a production - line maintenance plan [9][10] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: For the industrial silicon Si2605 contract, the closing price was 8,730 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 271,132 lots. For the polysilicon PS2605 contract, the closing price was 58,645 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 17,155 lots. There were also data on futures market spreads, basis, inventory, raw material costs, etc. [11] - Macro and Industry News: Anhui Hefei issued a notice to encourage distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to improve local consumption capacity [12] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [13]