国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20260106

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - Multiple commodities are in various market conditions, including high - level oscillations, short - term upward trends, and medium - term pressure. For example, p - xylene and PTA are in a high - level oscillation market supported by costs; MEG has limited upward space and medium - term pressure; synthetic rubber has a short - term upward central shift; methanol is expected to be short - term strong [2][9][10][14][38]. - The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical factors, and cost changes. For instance, the supply and demand of PX and PTA are affected by device startups and shutdowns; the prices of LPG and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors; the prices of urea are affected by demand expectations [9][10][38][41]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX, PTA, and MEG futures prices declined on the previous trading day, with declines of - 0.69%, - 1.25%, and - 1.87% respectively. PX CFR China prices dropped, PTA prices in East China decreased, and MEG spot prices also fell. PX - naphtha spreads and PTA processing fees increased slightly, while short - fiber and bottle - chip processing fees decreased [5]. - Market Dynamics: PX prices fell due to the decline in naphtha prices; Pakistan imposed anti - dumping duties on PTA imports from China; MEG port inventories in East China decreased slightly [6]. - Trend and Suggestions: PX has strong cost support, and long - spread positions can be held. PTA is in a high - level oscillation market, and long - spread operations can be maintained. MEG has a medium - term weak trend, and short - spread positions can be held [9][10]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: Rubber futures prices rose, trading volume and open interest increased, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. Spot - futures spreads and some variety spreads changed [11]. - Industry News: As of January 4, 2026, natural rubber inventories in Qingdao increased, and the production of some enterprises was in the recovery stage after the "New Year's Day" holiday [12][13]. - Trend: Rubber is in an oscillating operation [11]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: Futures prices of synthetic rubber rose, trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased. The prices of butadiene and some synthetic rubber products increased, while the profit of butadiene rubber decreased [14]. - Industry News: As of December 31, 2025, domestic butadiene rubber inventories decreased; butadiene inventories in East China ports increased. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may lead to a short - term strong trend in butadiene and butadiene rubber [15][16]. - Trend: The short - term central shift of synthetic rubber is upward [14]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: LLDPE futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [17]. - Market Situation: The spot market had positive feedback in the short term, and inventory was transferred to the middle stream. The raw material price of crude oil rebounded, and the profit of PE ethylene and ethane processes was compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [17][18]. - Trend: LLDPE is in a neutral trend [18]. PP - Fundamental Data: PP futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and South China increased [19]. - Market Situation: The cost of crude oil and propane is strong, the supply - demand game of existing capacity intensifies, and the demand is weak. It is expected to continue the weak trend, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [19][20]. - Trend: PP is in a neutral trend [20]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: The 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided, and the basis is - 8 [21]. - Market Situation: After the New Year's Day, the caustic soda contract prices fell due to delivery factors, but the short - term decline based on delivery factors is limited. The fundamentals show a pattern of high production and high inventory, and the demand is weak [23]. - Trend: It is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda [21][23]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: Pulp futures prices were relatively stable, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some pulp varieties were stable, and spreads changed slightly [28]. - Industry News: Spot prices were stable, port inventories were in a cumulative trend, and downstream demand was weak [29]. - Trend: Pulp is in a wide - range oscillating market [26]. Glass - Fundamental Data: Glass futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened slightly, and spot prices in Shahe, Hubei, and Zhejiang were stable [32]. - Market Situation: Domestic float glass prices were generally stable, and the sales of most regional enterprises were average during the holiday [32]. - Trend: Glass is in a neutral trend [32]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: Methanol futures prices declined slightly, the basis strengthened, and spot prices in some regions changed [35]. - Market Situation: The spot price index of methanol decreased, port inventories were at a high level but were expected to improve. Geopolitical factors and supply expectations led to a short - term strong trend, and there is a pressure level at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton [37][38]. - Trend: Methanol is expected to be short - term strong [38]. Urea - Fundamental Data: Urea futures prices rose, trading volume increased significantly, and open interest increased. Spot prices of some urea factories increased slightly, and inventories decreased [40][41]. - Industry News: As of December 31, 2025, domestic urea enterprise inventories decreased. The spot trading was active, and the medium - term central shift of urea was upward [41]. - Trend: The central shift of urea is upward [39][42]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: Styrene futures prices declined, and spreads and inventories changed [43]. - Market Situation: The current valuation is high, and there are opportunities to short at high levels. The medium - term drive is weak, and there is pressure in the first quarter [44][46]. - Trend: Styrene is in a short - term oscillating market [43]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: Soda ash futures prices declined, the 05 - contract basis strengthened, and spot prices in North, East, and Central China decreased [49]. - Market Situation: The domestic soda ash market was weak, supply increased, and demand was average [49]. - Trend: Soda ash is in a neutral trend [50]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: LPG and propylene futures prices had different changes, trading volume and open interest changed, and spreads and industry data such as PDH and MTBE operating rates were provided [54]. - Market Situation: The price of 2 - month CP paper goods for LPG decreased, and there are many domestic PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans. Propylene has limited upward and downward drivers, and the spot trend is stable [59][60]. - Trend: LPG and propylene are in a neutral trend [58]. PVC - Fundamental Data: PVC futures prices and spot prices, basis, and spreads are provided [63]. - Market Situation: The PVC spot market was in a weak - oscillating state, supply was expected to increase, and demand was weak. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the probability of large - scale production reduction is expected to increase after the 03 - contract [63]. - Trend: PVC is short - term strong and medium - term oscillating [62]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices in different regions decreased [67]. - Trend: The upward trend of fuel oil has paused, and there is support below; low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range oscillating market [67]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: The futures prices of the container freight index (European line) increased, trading volume and open interest increased, and freight rate indices and current freight rates changed [69]. - Market Situation: The index showed an oscillating and strong trend, mainly driven by the price increase of MSC. The 1 - month shipping capacity was relatively stable, and the 2 - month shipping capacity may be affected by the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the opening of shipping spaces and pricing strategies [76][77][78]. - Trend: The container freight index (European line) is in a neutral trend [81]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Fundamental Data: Short - fiber and bottle - chip futures prices declined, trading volume and open interest changed, and spot prices decreased [82]. - Market Situation: Short - fiber futures prices oscillated and declined, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers were differentiated. The prices of bottle - chip factories decreased, and the market transaction was okay [82][83]. - Trend: Short - fiber and bottle - chip are in a short - term oscillating market [82][83]. Offset Printing Paper - Fundamental Data: The prices of offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, and the cost and profit of paper were provided [85]. - Industry News: The prices of high - white and natural - white offset printing paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets were stable, the demand was weak, and the trading was general [86][88]. - Trend: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper [85]. Pure Benzene - Fundamental Data: Pure benzene futures prices declined, port inventories increased, and spreads and inventories of related products changed [89]. - News: As of January 5, 2026, pure benzene port inventories in Jiangsu and China increased, and the price of Shandong pure benzene decreased [90]. - Trend: Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillating market [89].