原油：空单持有，关注伊朗问题等上行风险

Report Industry Investment Rating - Hold short positions in crude oil and pay attention to upside risks such as the Iran issue. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, indicating a bearish view [1][12]. Core View - The report analyzes the crude oil arbitrage situation in multiple regions, including the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic, Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, and Asia, and also provides key market news related to the crude oil market. Summary by Directory 1. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage status of various alternative crude oils in refinery configurations is mostly closed, with negative spreads. For example, Arab Extra Light in cracking configuration has a spread of -3.49, and Agbami in cracking configuration has a spread of -6.13 [1]. 2. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties has a slight positive incentive with a spread of 0.48, and Arab Extra Light has a medium spread of 2.26 driven by the increase in refinery value. Cabinda's arbitrage window is closed with a spread of -2.79, and Urals is affected by geopolitics [2]. 3. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - In the NWE region, the arbitrage between Forties and Azeri Light is closed with a negative price difference of -1.02, while the arbitrage between Forties and Bonny Light is open with a slight positive incentive of 0.6. In the Mediterranean, the arbitrage between Urals and Azeri Light and Bonny Light is closed due to negative freight and structure factors [4]. 4. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage of various crude oil varieties such as Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, and Ekofisk is closed, with deep negative spreads, indicating difficult arbitrage opportunities [5]. 5. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - In Singapore, the arbitrage between Tapis and Dubai is closed with a spread of -0.99, while the arbitrage between Tapis and Bonny Light is open with a spread of 0.57. In Japan, the arbitrage between ESPO and Bonny Light is closed with a spread of -11.36, and the arbitrage between Dubai and Maya is open with a spread of 0.81. In China, the arbitrage between Dubai and Mars is open with a spread of 0.64 [5]. 6. Key Market News - Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu conveyed through Putin that Israel currently has no intention to further deteriorate the situation or attack Iran, but also stated that any Iranian attack will bring "serious consequences" [6][7]. - The US plans to intercept an oil tanker carrying Venezuelan oil, and Rodriguez became the acting president of Venezuela. Maduro's son expressed "unconditional support" for Rodriguez [8]. - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price (OSP) of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in February at a premium of $0.3 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai average [8]. - US Energy Secretary Wright plans to meet with oil industry leaders this week to discuss the "restart" of the Venezuelan energy sector [8]. - A Chevron-chartered oil tanker loaded with Venezuelan crude has left Venezuelan waters and is heading to the US Gulf Coast [11].