Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the entire industry are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research on various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and analysis based on their fundamentals and market news [2]. - The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, macro - economic data, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the situation in Venezuela has an impact on the prices of gold, copper, and other commodities [5][8]. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The prices of domestic and foreign gold futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The geopolitical event of the US airstrike in Venezuela has supported the price of gold [2][5]. - Silver: It is in a high - level consolidation. The prices of domestic and foreign silver futures and spot have different trends. The trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][5]. - Platinum: It is oscillating upwards. The prices of platinum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. - Palladium: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The prices of palladium futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [25][27]. Base Metals - Copper: The sentiment of going long is strong, and the price has been rising continuously. The prices of domestic and foreign copper futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical risks and industry news such as production capacity expansion and labor - contract negotiations have an impact on the price [2][8]. - Zinc: It is oscillating strongly. The prices of domestic and foreign zinc futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][11]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price. The prices of domestic and foreign lead futures have different trends, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and industry news have affected the price [2][14]. - Tin: It is oscillating within a range. The prices of domestic and foreign tin futures have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macro - and industry news have an impact on the price [2][18]. - Aluminum: It continues to make up for losses. The prices of aluminum futures and spot have increased, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Macroeconomic data and industry news have affected the price [2][21]. - Alumina: It has a slight decline. The prices of alumina futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][21]. - Nickel: There is a game between the real - world pressure and the narrative of the cycle shift, with a wide - range oscillation. The prices of nickel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Industry news such as policy restrictions in Indonesia has an impact on the price [2][29]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly gambling on Indonesian policies. The prices of stainless - steel futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed [2][29]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - related (implied): The geopolitical situation in Venezuela and other regions has affected the price expectations of crude oil - related products, which in turn has an impact on the prices of downstream products [29][64]. - PTA: It is in a high - level oscillating market with cost support. The prices of PTA futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][64]. - MEG: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The prices of MEG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][59][65]. - Rubber: It is oscillating. The prices of rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and production situation have an impact on the price [2][66]. - Synthetic Rubber: The short - term center has shifted upwards. The prices of synthetic - rubber futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][69]. - LLDPE: The upstream inventory has been transferred, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of LLDPE futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][72]. - PP: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the basis has strengthened. The prices of PP futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of raw materials and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][74]. - Caustic Soda: It is not advisable to chase short. The price of caustic - soda futures has changed, and the spot market is not optimistic. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][76]. - Paper Pulp: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The prices of paper - pulp futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][81]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The prices of glass futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The market supply and demand and the sales situation have an impact on the price [2][86]. - Methanol: It is strong in the short term. The prices of methanol futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. Geopolitical events and the supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][90]. - Urea: The oscillation center has shifted upwards. The prices of urea futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory and demand situation have an impact on the price [2][95]. - Styrene: It is in a short - term oscillation. The prices of styrene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the inventory situation have an impact on the price [2][99]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. The prices of soda - ash futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries have an impact on the price [2][103]. - LPG: Geopolitical factors have disturbed the cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of the downward drive. The prices of LPG futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of CP paper have an impact on the price [2][109]. - Propylene: The upward and downward drives are limited, and the spot trend has stabilized. The prices of propylene futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the start - up rate of production facilities have an impact on the price [2][110]. - PVC: It is strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. The prices of PVC futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The high - production and high - inventory pattern and the demand situation have an impact on the price [2][118]. - Fuel Oil: The upward trend has paused, and there is support at the bottom. The prices of fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. The prices of low - sulfur fuel - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the international market situation have an impact on the price [2][123]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The fundamental driving force is not strong, and attention should be paid to the spill - over effect of crude - oil fluctuations. The prices of palm - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - Soybean Oil: The unilateral price is in a range, and attention should be paid to the price - difference opportunities between months. The prices of soybean - oil futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The inventory, production, and export situation have an impact on the price [2][150]. - Soybean Meal: The peripheral market has generally risen, and the Dalian soybean meal may follow the rebound. The prices of soybean - meal futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - Soybean: It is in a rebound and oscillation. The prices of soybean futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the international and domestic markets and the weather in South America have an impact on the price [2][155]. - Corn: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The prices of corn futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the import situation have an impact on the price [2][158]. - Sugar: It is mainly in a weak operation. The prices of sugar futures and spot have changed. The production, consumption, and import situation at home and abroad have an impact on the price [2][162]. - Cotton: It maintains an oscillating and strong trend. The prices of cotton futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the domestic and international markets and the purchase situation of textile enterprises have an impact on the price [2][167]. - Eggs: It is in an oscillating adjustment. The prices of egg futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the upstream and downstream industries and the price of feed have an impact on the price [2][172]. - Hogs: The weakness is emerging. The prices of hog futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the inventory of warehouse receipts have an impact on the price [2][175]. - Peanuts: It is in an oscillating operation. The prices of peanut futures and spot have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The supply and demand of the market and the purchase situation have an impact on the price [2][181]. Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The prices of container - freight - index futures have changed, and the trading volume and positions of some contracts have changed. The shipping capacity, price adjustment of shipping companies, and geopolitical situation have an impact on the price [2][125].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20260106
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2026-01-06 01:34