期货市场交易指引2026年01月06日-20260106

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are long - term optimistic, buy on dips; treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][5][6] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass is expected to be slightly bullish [1][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper to hold long positions cautiously; aluminum to strengthen observation; nickel to observe or sell short on rallies; tin, gold, and silver for range trading; lithium carbonate for range - bound oscillations [1][11][13][15] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash to wait and see; polyolefins to oscillate weakly [1][19][21][24] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, apples are expected to be slightly bullish; red dates to rebound from the bottom [1][27][28] - Agricultural and Livestock: For live pigs, short - term contracts to sell short on rallies, long - term contracts to be cautiously bullish; for eggs, breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies; for corn, short - term to be cautious about chasing highs, grain holders to hedge on rallies; for soybean meal, short - term contracts to be treated strongly on dips, long - term contracts to be treated weakly; for oils, the rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated [1][29][31][32] Core Views - The A - share market has a positive start in 2026, with high trading volume and broad - based gains. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027. The bond market is affected by low yields and high supply, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [5] - In the black building materials market, the coking coal market is in a game between bearish and bullish factors, and rebar is affected by supply and demand and policies [8] - The non - ferrous metals market is complex. Copper has long - term supply support but short - term over - priced risks; aluminum is affected by fundamentals and policies; nickel is expected to remain in surplus; tin is affected by supply and demand; precious metals are affected by the US economic situation [11][13][15] - The energy chemicals market is generally weak. PVC, caustic soda, and other products are affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [19][21] - In the cotton textile and agricultural livestock markets, products such as cotton, apples, and red dates are affected by supply, demand, and policies; live pigs, eggs, and other products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and seasonality [27][29][31] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: On the first trading day, A - shares opened and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points and trading volume exceeding 2.5 trillion. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the Chinese stock market in 2026 and 2027, expecting annual growth of 15% - 20%. The market is expected to develop further, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury Bonds: The market has quickly digested the positive news about fund fees and bank EVE indicators. Due to low bond yields and high supply, treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [6] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The market is in a game between bearish factors (high imported Mongolian coal inventory, weak demand) and bullish factors (domestic coal mine production cuts, cost support). Short - term trading is recommended [8] - Rebar: The futures price was weak on Monday. The valuation is neutral, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant in the short term. Range trading is recommended [8] - Glass: Supply - side factors such as production line cold repairs are positive, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, and there are opportunities for long glass and short soda ash [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price has reached a high level, but there are short - term over - priced risks. The supply is expected to be sufficient in January, and the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Long positions should be held cautiously [11][12] - Aluminum: The alumina market is in a weak situation, and the aluminum price is driven by expectations and funds. The upward pressure is large in January, and observation is recommended [13] - Nickel: The supply of nickel ore is expected to decrease, but the overall nickel market is in surplus. The price may rebound in the short term, and investors can observe or sell short on rallies [15] - Tin: The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and range trading is recommended [16] - Silver and Gold: Affected by the US economic situation, the prices are expected to move sideways. Long positions in silver can be held, and range trading is recommended for gold [17] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply is affected by factors such as mine production and imports, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate [19] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The cost is under pressure, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and range trading is recommended [19] - Caustic Soda: There is short - term delivery pressure, and the medium - term support depends on the improvement of the alumina market. Temporary observation is recommended [21] - Styrene: The current valuation is high, and the price is expected to oscillate. Range trading is recommended [21] - Rubber: The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [22] - Urea: The supply is decreasing, and the demand is also weak. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [23] - Methanol: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, and range trading is recommended [24] - Polyolefins: The supply is expected to decrease in the first quarter of 2026, but the demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the LP spread is expected to widen [25] - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by downstream industries. Temporary observation is recommended [25] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Affected by the global cotton supply - demand situation and policies, the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - Apples: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [27] - Red Dates: The acquisition in Xinjiang is over, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [28] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: In the short term, the price is oscillating due to supply - demand games. In the long term, the supply is expected to increase in the first quarter, and the price is under pressure. Short - term contracts can be sold short on rallies, and long - term contracts can be cautiously bullish [29] - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and the price is at a low level. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. Breeding enterprises can hedge on rallies [31][32] - Corn: The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term demand is gradually released but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Short - term caution is needed when chasing highs, and long - term there is strong support at the bottom [34] - Soybean Meal: The short - term price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports and South American weather. Range trading is recommended, with short - term contracts treated strongly on dips and long - term contracts treated weakly [35][36] - Oils: The short - term rebound of the three major oils is limited, and previous long positions should be gradually liquidated. In the long term, there are potential positive factors [41][42]