国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity: - Gold: 1 [6] - Silver: 1 [6] - Copper: 2 [9] - Zinc: 1 [12] - Lead: 0 [14] - Tin: 1 [18] - Aluminum: 1 [22] - Alumina: 0 [22] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 1 [22] - Platinum: 0 [28] - Palladium: 0 [28] - Nickel: 0 [32] - Stainless Steel: 0 [32] 2. Core Views - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2] - Silver: Consolidating at high levels [2] - Copper: Bullish sentiment is strong, and prices are rising continuously [2] - Zinc: Oscillating with an upward bias [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2] - Tin: Trading in a range [2] - Aluminum: Continuing to make up for losses [2] - Alumina: Slightly declining [2] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Platinum: Oscillating upwards [2] - Palladium: Trading in a range [2] - Nickel: A wide - range oscillation due to the game between real - world pressure and cycle - shift narratives [2] - Stainless Steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down, and the market is mainly speculating on Indonesian policies [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - Price Performance: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84, down 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30, up 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140, down 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015, up 6.11% [4] - Macro and Industry News: US air - strikes on Venezuela, geopolitical risks support gold, and OPEC+ will maintain the plan to suspend production increases in Q1 [4][6] Copper - Price Performance: Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 101350, up 3.17%; LME Copper 3M closed at 13088, up 5.03% [7] - Macro and Industry News: Venezuelan President Maduro's arrest, US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrank, and China's November 2025 copper ore imports increased [7] - Industry Developments: Chile's Mantoverde copper - gold mine labor contract negotiation, Julong Copper Mine's second - phase expansion, and Kamoa - Kakula copper smelter's production [9] Zinc - Price Performance: Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 23820, up 2.34%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3127, up 0.03% [10] - News: China's December service industry PMI expanded, and Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court [11] Lead - Price Performance: Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17395, up 0.23%; LME Lead 3M closed at 1994, down 0.57% [13] - News: Maduro's arrest and US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage [14] Tin - Price Performance: Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 334370, up 3.55%; LME Tin 3M closed at 42560, up 5.74% [17] - Macro and Industry News: US hopes Venezuela to stop oil sales, SK Hynix's new product display, and NVIDIA's plan [18] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 23645, up 720; Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 2770, down 8; Cast Aluminum Alloy's main contract closed at 22520 [20] - Comprehensive News: US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI shrinkage and US motives for Venezuelan military action [22] Platinum and Palladium - Price Performance: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 583.95, up 8.80%; Palladium futures 2606 closed at 452.85, up 6.50% [27] - Macro and Industry News: Venezuelan situation, FOMC member's speech, China - South Korea summit, and new energy vehicle sales [28] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 134100, up 1250; Stainless Steel's main contract closed at 13075, down 50 [29] - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia's suspension of new smelting licenses, China's steel product export license, and Indonesia's nickel - related policies [29][30]