菜粕期货周报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View During the week of December 22 - 26, 2025, the rapeseed meal market showed a fluctuating upward trend. The Canadian canola futures hit a nine - month low and still face pressure due to a record harvest, high inventory, and weak export demand, with no short - term trend improvement expected. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in the near - term is restricted, and the current oil mills are shut down, leading to a tight supply of rapeseed meal. However, Australian rapeseed is arriving at ports, increasing the long - term supply expectation. Meanwhile, soybean meal has a good substitution advantage, weakening the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short term, rapeseed meal will maintain a fluctuating trend with no significant fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Contract Price: The rapeseed meal futures price showed a fluctuating upward trend during the week. As of Friday, the main contract, rapeseed meal rm2605, closed at 2391 points, with a high of 2404 points and a low of 2309 points. The position was 650,686 lots, an increase of 52,198 lots from the previous week, and the trading volume was 1.6701 million lots, an increase of 321,800 lots from the previous week [4][5]. - Variety Market: In the weekly rapeseed meal futures market, all contracts rose to varying degrees. The total position of the variety was 779,859 lots, and the trading volume was 1,888,527 lots [7]. - Related Market: The rapeseed meal options traded 446,920 lots during the week, with a total position of 118,745 lots, an increase of 28,801 lots in position, and a total of 6 lots exercised during the week [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot Market Conditions: The spot price of rapeseed meal showed a fluctuating upward trend during the week. On December 22, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal was 2,450 yuan/ton, and on December 26, it was 2,488.33 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis Data: The basis of rapeseed meal fluctuated gently during the week, ranging from 113 yuan/ton to 96 yuan/ton [12]. - Registered Warehouse Receipts: According to the warehouse receipt daily report of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, as of Friday, the total warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal were 0, the same as the previous week [13]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Latest News: The market has a strong expectation that the supply and demand of domestic rapeseed products will gradually become looser after December with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and Russian rapeseed oil in the 2025/2026 season. Although there was news that some Russian rapeseed oil was returned, which stimulated a short - term rebound in rapeseed oil prices, the overall trend of looser supply and demand remains unchanged, limiting the market's expectation of rapeseed meal price increases [16]. - Technical Analysis: The rapeseed meal rm2605 contract showed a fluctuating and strengthening adjustment during the week. The prices on Thursday and Friday rose strongly, indicating a short - term upward rebound. The price was above the moving averages of various periods, and the weekly low was effectively supported near the previous low. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the upper high on the price [17]. 3.4 Market Outlook The price of the rapeseed meal futures rm2605 contract was strongly influenced by market sentiment this week. In the short term, it may continue to maintain a fluctuating and strengthening pattern. However, there is still some uncertainty in the future trend. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of the Canadian rapeseed import policy and the arrival and operation of domestic imported soybeans and rapeseed on prices [20].