工业硅：基本面弱势格局，多晶硅：高位震荡，关注消息面影响

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the impact of news on the market. The trend intensities of industrial silicon and polysilicon are both -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market: Si2605's closing price is 8,730 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 130 yuan from T - 1. PS2605's closing price is 58,645 yuan/ton, with an increase of 725 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of both contracts have changed compared to previous periods [1] - Basis: Industrial silicon has different spot premiums or discounts when benchmarked against different products, such as +520 for East China Si5530, +120 for East China Si4210, and -30 for Xinjiang 99 silicon. Polysilicon's spot premium or discount (benchmarked against N - type re - investment) is -5,645 yuan/ton [1] - Prices: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 is 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - investment material is 53,250 yuan/ton [1] - Profit: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,596.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 4,904 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 8.9 yuan/kg [1] - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.7 million tons, the enterprise inventory is 20.2 million tons, and the industry inventory is 75.9 million tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is 30.6 million tons [1] - Raw Material Costs: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes in different regions remain mostly stable, with only slight changes in some cases [1] - Prices and Profits in Related Industries: In the photovoltaic industry, prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products have different degrees of change. In the organic silicon and aluminum alloy industries, prices and profits also show different trends. For example, the price of DMC is 13,600 yuan/ton, and the profit of DMC enterprises is 1,632 yuan/ton [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - On December 31, 2025, the Development and Reform Commission of Hefei, Anhui Province issued a notice to encourage distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to improve local consumption capacity through methods such as integrated photoelectric energy storage and charging and coordinated interaction between power sources, grids, loads, and energy storage. When queuing in areas with no available capacity, power supply companies should inform users about grid - connection through energy storage and the corresponding energy storage ratio [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]