国新国证期货早报-20260106

Report Summary 1. Market Overview on January 5, 2026 - A-shares had a good start in 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a 12 - day consecutive rise and reclaiming the 4000 - point mark. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to close at 4023.42, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24% to close at 13828.63, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.85% to close at 3294.55. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2567.5 billion yuan, a significant increase of 501.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] 2. Index Performance - The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4717.75, a环比 increase of 87.81 [2] 3. Commodity Futures 3.1 Coke and Coking Coal - On January 5, the coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1647.6, a环比 decrease of 49.4. The coking coal weighted index trended weakly in a volatile manner, closing at 1080.0 yuan, a环比 decrease of 33.3. The fourth round of price cuts by steel mills for coke has been implemented, and there are still expectations of further price cuts. The supply side of coke shows increased production by coke enterprises and inventory accumulation, while the demand side sees rising blast furnace operation and increased daily pig iron output. For coking coal, the spot price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal is 1320 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 1235 yuan/ton on the futures market. The capacity utilization rate of mines and coal washing plants has decreased, while Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased, leading to clean coal inventory accumulation. Steel and coke production loads have risen, but coke enterprises remain in a loss - making state [2][3][4] 3.2 Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the decline in US sugar prices and the reduction in spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward in the morning session, then rebounded slightly and closed slightly higher due to the boost from the strong stock market. At night, it fluctuated slightly and closed slightly higher. It is expected that Thailand's 2025/26 annual sugar cane output will be 93 million tons, with an estimated range between 78 million and 108 million tons [4] 3.3 Rubber - As the peak rubber - producing season in Southeast Asia enters the second half, the pressure of spot supply will gradually ease. Coupled with the political turmoil in Venezuela affecting Southeast Asian spot quotes, which trended higher, the Shanghai Rubber futures contract oscillated upward on Monday. At night, it oscillated slightly higher. From January to November 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 2.419 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In total, Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber reached 4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [4] 3.4 Soybeans and Soybean Meal - For the week ending December 25, US soybean export sales for the current market year increased by 19% to 1.7777 million tons, with net sales to the Chinese mainland reaching 396,400 tons. Brazil has basically completed soybean sowing, and early - maturing soybeans are about to enter the harvest season. The current weather conditions in Brazil's soybean - producing areas are favorable, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. Most analysis institutions estimate Brazil's soybean output to be over 177 million tons, putting pressure on US soybean exports. As of December 30, Argentina's soybean sowing rate was 82%, and the sown soybeans are growing well. On January 5, the domestic soybean meal main contract M2605 closed at 2754 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. Currently, domestic soybean port and oil mill inventories are at relatively high levels, and oil mill operating rates remain high, ensuring stable soybean meal output. However, the estimated soybean arrival volume in January 2026 is only 5 million tons, a significant reduction from the previous period, which may gradually ease the supply - side pressure [5] 3.5 Live Pigs - On January 5, the live pig main contract LH2603 closed at 11,660 yuan/ton, down 0.98%. On the supply side, large - scale pig farms have completed their annual plans and are slowing down in January, while small - scale farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a temporary shortage of medium and large - sized pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausages are booming, and terminal consumption is strong, effectively supporting pig prices. In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of the live pig market has improved marginally, boosting prices to fluctuate strongly. However, in the long - term, the supply pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated [5] 3.6 Palm Oil - On January 5, after the New Year's opening, domestic palm oil futures declined due to the weak performance of the overseas oil market during the holiday, erasing the pre - holiday gains. The P2605 contract closed with a negative K - line, with a high of 8600, a low of 8414, and a close of 8488, down 1.12% from the previous day. As of January 2, 2026 (Week 1), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 726,700 tons, a decrease of 7400 tons (1.01%) from the previous week and an increase of 225,000 tons (44.85%) from the same period last year [5] 3.7 Shanghai Copper - The main Shanghai Copper contract opened at 99,450, reached a high of 101,380, a low of 99,150, and settled at 100,420, up 3110 from the previous settlement. The trading volume was 1.51 million lots, and the open interest was 2.163 million lots. Macroeconomic factors include the Fed's easing expectations and mild domestic stimulus, creating a positive sentiment. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the US tariffs, hoarding, and production - cut expectations have strengthened the narrative of supply shortage. The rise in LME copper prices has boosted the domestic market [5] 3.8 Cotton - On Monday night, the main Zhengzhou Cotton contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton. Cotton textile enterprises are cautious in purchasing, buying as they need. Cotton inventory increased by 406 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] 3.9 Iron Ore - On January 5, the iron ore 2605 main contract closed up 0.95% at 797 yuan. Currently, global iron ore shipments are at a high level. Although the arrival volume has decreased, port inventories continue to accumulate. As steel mills' profitability improves and the end - of - year blast furnace maintenance nears completion, pig iron output is expected to stabilize and rise. In the short term, iron ore prices will fluctuate [5] 3.10 Asphalt - On January 5, the asphalt 2602 main contract closed up 3.95% at 3133 yuan. The supply of asphalt from local refineries is expected to decrease in January. Coupled with the intensifying geopolitical conflicts in South America, which have increased the uncertainty of raw material supply, the tightening supply and rising costs support asphalt prices. In the short term, asphalt prices will fluctuate [6] 3.11 Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 779.5, reached a low of 772, a high of 783.5, and closed at 772.5, with an increase of 29 lots in open interest. The spot prices of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter and 730 yuan/cubic meter respectively. There are no major contradictions in the supply - demand relationship. Future price trends will depend on spot prices, import data, inventory changes, and macro - economic expectations [6] 3.12 Steel - On January 5, rb2605 closed at 3104 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3248 yuan/ton. As some steel mills' blast furnaces resume production and pig iron output increases, iron ore prices have been fluctuating at high levels recently. The coking coal market continues to weaken, suppressing coke prices. In the off - season, the supply - demand balance in the steel market continues, and raw material prices show different trends. The market sentiment is mainly wait - and - see, and steel prices may adjust slightly [6] 3.13 Alumina - On January 5, ao2605 closed at 2770 yuan/ton. The progress of production resumption and new capacity launch by domestic alumina enterprises has accelerated, and the expectation of oversupply continues to strengthen, putting pressure on alumina prices. On the demand side, the high operating rate of electrolytic aluminum supports rigid demand, but the purchasing pace has slowed down. Downstream customers mainly make purchases based on rigid needs, and although spot quotes are firm, trading volume is low. Inventory continues to increase due to oversupply [6] 3.14 Shanghai Aluminum - On January 5, al2602 closed at 23,645 yuan/ton. The positive macro - economic sentiment has led funds to flow into non - ferrous metals, resulting in a general rise in the non - ferrous metals market. Aluminum has temporarily deviated from its industrial product attributes, and its resource circulation attributes have increased, weakening the pressure of seasonal demand and inventory accumulation. Therefore, aluminum prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, production is normal, and social inventories have accumulated. On the demand side, the pressure continues to increase. The purchasing and sales sides have shrunk, with more purchases by traders but less by downstream and terminal customers. Large - scale downstream processing plants maintain a certain level of demand, with moderate demand in the plate, strip, foil, and industrial materials sectors, while the consumption pressure in other sectors continues to increase [6]