PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，基差走强

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of PP provide limited support at the end of the year. With the PDH profit at a new low, but the upstream having locked in raw materials and made some pre - sales earlier, the willingness to cut production is not strong. It is expected that PP will continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices under the deep - loss PDH profit [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - LLDPE Futures Data: The closing price of PP2605 was 6330, with a daily decline of 0.28%. The trading volume was 374,453, and the position changed by 535 [1] - LLDPE Basis and Spread Data: The 05 - contract basis was - 160 (compared to - 208 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 25 (compared to - 20 the previous day) [1] - LLDPE Spot Price Data: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6180 yuan/ton, 6170 yuan/ton, and 6260 yuan/ton respectively, showing increases compared to the previous day [1] 2. Spot News - Before the festival, the domestic PP market had partial small increases. After the festival, due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in South America during the festival, which boosted oil price expectations, the futures fluctuated on the first day after the festival, and the spot prices rose. However, the end - of - year demand is difficult to provide continuous elasticity, the sustainability of buying is questionable, and the warehouse receipts remain at a high level. The PP US - dollar market price remained stable, with overseas suppliers having low enthusiasm for offering to China, and downstream buyers continuing to make rigid - need purchases, resulting in difficult improvement in trading [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Cost Side: Crude oil and propane prices are strong. The chemical configuration in the market is differentiated, and the hedging logic between aromatics and olefins is continuously strengthened [2] - Supply Side: There is no new production before the 2605 contract, and the game between existing supply and demand intensifies [2] - Demand Side: The follow - up of new orders from downstream industries weakens, and downstream factories are still cautious in purchasing, resulting in weak demand [2] 4. Trend Intensity - The PP trend intensity is 0 [2]