LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - LLDPE upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis strengthens. The futures price is in a short - term rebound, and the inventory is transferred to the middle - stream. The geopolitical situation during the festival supports the crude oil price, and the spot price mostly rises. However, the downstream factory is cautious, and the transaction is poor. The raw material end crude oil price stabilizes and rebounds, the monomer link is weakly stable, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are compressed. The PE disk rebounds at a low level, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The supply side has new devices starting up, and there is a need to pay attention to the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory and weakening demand in the medium - term [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2605 is 6449, with a daily decline of 0.36%. The trading volume is 452,112, and the position changes by 7,498 [1] - Basis and Spread Data: The basis of the 05 contract is - 129 (previous day: - 182), and the 05 - 09 contract spread is - 47 (previous day: - 37) [1] - Spot Price Data: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China are 6,320 yuan/ton, 6,400 yuan/ton, and 6,470 yuan/ton respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures fluctuates. Before the festival, the rebound of the disk gives agents and futures - cash merchants an opportunity to build positions. The market's short - covering and hedging transactions are active. The inventory is transferred to the middle - stream, and the warehouse receipt stops de - stocking. The geopolitical disturbance during the festival supports the crude oil price, and the spot price mostly rises. The overseas quotation is stable, the downstream factory is mostly cautious and waiting, and the transaction is poor. It is expected that the intensification of the geopolitical situation may support the US - dollar - denominated market to run strongly [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw material end crude oil price stabilizes and rebounds, the monomer link is weakly stable, and the PE ethylene and ethane process profits are compressed. The PE disk rebounds at a low level, with most transactions concentrated in the middle - stream, and the downstream has not chased up to replenish goods. The downstream agricultural film is weakening, the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand, but after the recent decline, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods has weakened. The upstream offers discounts to sell at the end of the year, and the factory inventory is slightly reduced, with a weak basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, the maintenance plan in January is neutral, some FD products are switched, and the Inner Mongolia device reduces its load. In the medium - term, it is necessary to pay attention to the supply - demand pressure brought by high inventory and weakening demand [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [2]