格林期货早盘提示：甲醇-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol industry is "long" [2] 2. Core View - The weekend US attack on Venezuela has escalated geopolitical conflict risks, but its direct impact on methanol is limited. Last week, both ports and inland areas saw inventory accumulation. After mid - January, the expected decrease in imported arrivals and the restart plan of olefin plants mean methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300. It is recommended to wait and see on long positions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose by 47 yuan to 2271 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell by 30 yuan to 2220 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 18,586 hands to 452,000 hands, and short positions increased by 42,410 hands to 572,000 hands [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 60.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.61% [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises are 78,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54,400 tons. The orders of sample enterprises to be shipped are 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period. The olefin operating rate is 88.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 7%, unchanged from the previous period; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the acetic acid operating rate is 77.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 68%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [2] - Import: In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Among them, the imports from Saudi Arabia were the largest at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 US dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - Geopolitical Event: On January 3, local time, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. The same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical conflict has a limited direct impact on methanol. With inventory accumulation last week, the expected decrease in imports after mid - January and the olefin plant restart plan, methanol has a situation of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The reference range for the 05 contract is 2180 - 2300 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Wait and see on long positions [2]