格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the pure benzene industry is "Oscillation" [2] Report's Core View - After the US attacked Venezuela, the Venezuelan oil facilities were not impacted for the time being. The medium - to long - term crude oil supply may increase after the US "takes over", which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate, while the downstream demand side's operating rate increased. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5380 - 5580 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction price of the US dollar - denominated pure benzene market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 fell by 5 yuan to 5405 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5290 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5233 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, the long positions increased by 812 lots to 18,000 lots, and the short positions increased by 1114 lots to 23,100 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In November, China's pure benzene production was 1.918 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.93%. The pure benzene import volume in November was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, the monthly import average price was 702.90 US dollars/ton, the import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 318,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous inventory, a month - on - month increase of 6.00%; compared with the inventory of 185,200 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 132,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.71%. From December 29th to January 4th, the estimated arrival was about 25,000 tons and the提货 was about 7,000 tons [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; the operating rate of phenol was 78%, a month - on - month increase of 3%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate of aniline was 62.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 63.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. Caprolactam plants started to cut production voluntarily, and there was an expected decrease in the monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production. The trading volume in Shandong was in the hundreds, with the low end at 5225 and the high end at 5240 [2] - International Oil Price: The market believes that after the conflict between the US and Venezuela, it will take time for Venezuela's production to recover and increase, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract was 58.32, up 1.00 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.74%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was 61.76, up 1.01 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.66%. China's INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 9.7 to 426.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.3 to 428.1 yuan/barrel at night [2] - News Event: On January 3rd local time, US President Trump said that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and took them out of Venezuela. On the same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3rd [2] Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuelan oil facilities were not affected in the short term. After the US "takes over", the medium - to long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. The pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate this week, while the downstream demand side's operating rate increased. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely [2] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]