格林期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillation" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the BZ2603 futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 5 yuan to 5,405 yuan/ton in the night session on Tuesday. The spot price in the mainstream areas of East China was 5,290 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5,233 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month-on-month). Long positions increased by 812 lots to 18,000 lots, and short positions increased by 1,114 lots to 23,100 lots. The market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the 03 contract reference range of 5,380 - 5,580 yuan/ton. Future attention should be paid to port arrivals and the transaction price of the US dollar pure benzene market [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of the BZ2603 futures contract of pure benzene decreased by 5 yuan to 5,405 yuan/ton in the night session on Tuesday. The spot price in the mainstream areas of East China was 5,290 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan month-on-month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5,233 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month-on-month). Long positions increased by 812 lots to 18,000 lots, and short positions increased by 1,114 lots to 23,100 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: In November, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.918 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.93%. The pure benzene import volume in November was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. In November 2025, the monthly import volume of pure benzene in China was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton, the import volume decreased by 7.48% month-on-month, increased by 5.93% year-on-year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 318,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous inventory of 300,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.00%; compared with the inventory of 185,200 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 132,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 71.71%. From December 29 to January 4, the incompletely - counted arrivals were about 25,000 tons, and the pick - up was about 7,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.7%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the phenol operating rate was 78%, a month-on-month increase of 3%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.1%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%; the aniline operating rate was 62.8%, a month-on-month increase of 1.6%; the adipic acid operating rate was 63.6%, a month-on-month increase of 4%. Caprolactam factories began self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected decrease in the monthly demand for pure benzene from December to January. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into production. The trading volume of pure benzene in Shandong yesterday was in the hundreds, with the low end at 5,225 yuan and the high end at 5,240 yuan [2] - International Oil Price: The market believes that after the conflict between the US and Venezuela, it will still take time for Venezuela's production to recover and increase, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract was at 58.32 US dollars/barrel, up 1.00 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.74%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 61.76 US dollars/barrel, up 1.01 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.66%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract decreased by 9.7 to 426.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.3 to 428.1 yuan/barrel in the night session [2] - News: According to CCTV News, on January 3, local time, US President Trump said that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. On the same day, a US official said that Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by members of the US military's highest special mission force, the Delta Force, in the early morning of January 3 [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected for the time being. After the US "takes over", the medium - to - long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. The pure benzene port in Jiangsu continued to accumulate inventory this week, and the downstream operating rate on the demand side increased. The short - term pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the 03 contract reference range of 5,380 - 5,580 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [2]