市场谨慎观望，钢价震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, while plates are constrained by high inventory. After the New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials and potential steel mill restarts for plates should be monitored [1]. - The iron ore market shows a significant decline in global shipments. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the inventory is increasing. Although the short - term price is in high - level oscillation, it faces downward risk once negotiations are finalized [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with a weakening oscillation trend. After the New Year's Day, the demand for coke may improve with steel mill restarts, while coking coal prices may remain weak before winter storage and could be further adjusted after [5][6]. - The thermal coal market sees a recovery in production area supply, and the coal price is stabilizing in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still abundant, and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be watched [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures main contract declined slightly yesterday, and the spot prices generally fell, with rebar down 10 - 20 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have a stable supply - demand situation with limited price fluctuations. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will intensify the game between reality and expectation. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve due to potential mill restarts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, but steel mills' procurement intention was low. Global iron ore shipments dropped significantly, with a 12.6% MoM decrease to 3214 million tons, while the 45 - port arrivals increased by 6% MoM to 2756 million tons [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and inventory is increasing. The market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices, but there is a downward risk once negotiations are settled. In the short term, the price will remain high - level oscillating [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main coking coal and coke futures contracts declined yesterday. The coking profit improved, and the demand from steel mills' blast furnaces increased slightly after New Year's Day. Coal mine production resumed, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered rapidly, with the Mongolian 5 raw coal price at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Supply and demand logic: The demand for coke may improve after New Year's Day, and it will remain oscillating in the short term. Coking coal supply and demand are relatively loose, and its price will remain weakly oscillating before winter storage and could be adjusted further after [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices fluctuated, and the group's purchased - in price and port price stabilized and rebounded. In the ports, the inventory decreased, driving a short - term price increase. The import market was inactive, with limited actual transactions [8]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still low, and the coal price is oscillating with the recovery of production area supply. In the long - term, the supply is abundant [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content