聚酯数据日报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical impact on the crude oil market is limited, with crude oil prices falling and the atmosphere in the bulk chemical market being weak. The downstream polyester production and sales are dull, and the PTA market is also declining [2]. - The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, mainly driven by speculative funds. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026 [2]. - Domestic PTA maintains high - level operation, and the polyester demand is affected by the domestic season but the polyester factory's production cuts are not enough to form a negative feedback [2]. - Overseas MEG device maintenance plans are increasing, but with the continuous decline of coal prices and the increase of new device production, the MEG market is under pressure, and its price may be supported by domestic policies under the carbon - neutral background [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Price and Index Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 432.2 yuan/barrel on December 31, 2025, to 421.7 yuan/barrel on January 5, 2026, a decrease of 10.5 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC increased from 1969.2 yuan/ton to 1981.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.3 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.6270 to 1.6466, an increase of 0.0196 [2]. - CFR China PX price decreased from 894 to 884, a decrease of 10 [2]. - PX - naphtha spread decreased from 364 to 354, a decrease of 10 [2]. - PTA main contract futures price dropped from 5110 yuan/ton to 5046 yuan/ton, a decrease of 64 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot price dropped from 5095 yuan/ton to 5030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton [2]. - Spot processing fee decreased from 344.9 yuan/ton to 343.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9 yuan/ton [2]. - Disk processing fee decreased from 374.9 yuan/ton to 359.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15.9 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG main contract futures price dropped from 3803 yuan/ton to 3732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG - naphtha increased from - 141.47 yuan/ton to - 140.79 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price dropped from 3681 yuan/ton to 3640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate increased from 86.28% to 87.87%, an increase of 1.59 percentage points [2]. - PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 77.40% [2]. - MEG start - up rate increased from 60.58% to 60.81%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points [2]. - Polyester load remained unchanged at 88.10% [2]. 3.3 Product Sales and Cash Flow in the Polyester Industry 3.3.1 Polyester Filament - POY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 6505, and its cash flow increased from - 334 to - 265, an increase of 69 [2]. - FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged at 6755, and its cash flow increased from - 584 to - 515, an increase of 69 [2]. - DTY150D/48F price remained unchanged at 7745, and its cash flow increased from - 294 to - 225, an increase of 69 [2]. - Polyester filament production and sales increased from 31% to 50%, an increase of 19 percentage points [2]. 3.3.2 Polyester Staple Fiber - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price dropped from 6545 to 6510, a decrease of 35 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 56 to 90, an increase of 34 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 59% to 53%, a decrease of 6 percentage points [2]. 3.3.3 Polyester Chip - Semi - bright chip price dropped from 5755 to 5730, a decrease of 25 [2]. - Chip cash flow increased from - 184 to - 140, an increase of 44 [2]. - Chip production and sales decreased from 67% to 47%, a decrease of 20 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest was restarted after shutting down at the beginning of last week [4].