瓶片短纤数据日报-20260106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The US raided Venezuela, leading to rising geopolitical risks; OPEC+ stated that eight member countries will suspend increasing oil production in Q1 2026 [2] - The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, mainly driven by speculative funds rather than fundamental changes. Although there are concerns about bubbles, the PX fundamentals are supported, and the market is expected to remain tight in 2026, driven by new PTA capacity in India and organic demand growth [2] - Domestic PTA maintains high operation, benefiting from stable domestic demand and the resumption of exports to India since the end of November. The high gasoline spread still supports aromatics. The commissioning of new polyester plants keeps the polyester load at a high level, with high PTA consumption and increased market hoarding willingness [2][3] - Although polyester demand weakens seasonally in China, the production cuts by polyester factories are not enough to form a negative feedback [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Index Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 5095 to 5030, a change of -65; MEG domestic price decreased from 3681 to 3640, a change of -41; PTA closing price decreased from 5110 to 5046, a change of -64; MEG closing price decreased from 3803 to 3732, a change of -71 [2] - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6545 to 6510, a change of -35; short fiber basis decreased from 70 to 38, a change of -32; 2 - 3 spread increased from -4 to 6, a change of 10 [2] - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased, with the average price down 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10450; T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3905 to 3940, a change of 35; polyester-cotton yarn 65/35 45S price increased from 16370 to 16400, a change of 30; cotton 328 price increased from 15315 to 15475, a change of 160 [2] Market Conditions - Short fiber: The short fiber futures main contract fell 82 to 6462. In the spot market, the price negotiation of polyester staple fiber production plants declined, and traders' prices followed the futures decline. Downstream rigid demand had a small amount of replenishment at low prices, and the on-site trading was average [2] - Bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5970 - 6080 yuan/ton. The PTA and bottle chip futures were weakly operating, the supply side mainly lowered the offer, the market negotiation atmosphere improved, and downstream end-users replenished inventory for rigid demand, with the market negotiation center moving down [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - Direct-spun short fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.37% to 89.32%, a change of 0.95%; polyester staple fiber production and sales decreased from 57.00% to 53.00%, a change of -4.00%; polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 66.00%; recycled cotton-type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 51.10% [3]