贵金属数据日报-20260106

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals strengthened due to the escalation of geopolitical risks caused by the US military strike on Venezuela, and the geopolitical trend is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices in the short - term [6]. - The spot silver price maintains a high premium, indicating a tight supply pattern that supports the silver price, but there may be game risks. It is recommended to pay attention to important US economic data, the new Fed chairperson, and the results of key mineral tariffs [6]. - Based on the gold - silver ratio at a near - decade low, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of buying gold on dips [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will persist, dollar credit risk will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - 15 - point price of internal and external gold and silver on January 5, 2026: London gold spot was $4420.31/ounce, London silver spot was $75.44/ounce, COMEX gold was $4429.90/ounce, COMEX silver was $75.25/ounce, AU2602 was 995 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 18260 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 992.10 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 18296 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 31, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 4.9%, 2.1%, 5.2%, 1.8%, 6.8%, 1.6%, and 7.1% respectively [5]. - Price difference/ratio on January 5, 2026: The gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 2.9 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was 36 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external (TD - London) price difference was - 5.98 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external (TD - London) price difference was - 843 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 54.49, the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 58.87, AU2604 - 2602 was 2.30 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 13 yuan/kilogram. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 267.1%, - 256.5%, 293.8%, - 26.0%, - 4.7%, - 3.0%, - 12.2%, and - 55.2% respectively [5]. 2. Position Data - As of January 2, 2026: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1065.13 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 16444.13962 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 290161 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 49461 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 240700 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 55243 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 19359 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 35884 contracts. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were - 0.51%, 0.00%, 3.29%, 5.37%, 2.87%, - 1.41%, - 1.64%, and - 1.29% respectively [5]. 3. Inventory Data - On January 5, 2026: SHFE gold inventory was 97704 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory was 669547 kilograms. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 0.00% and - 3.19% respectively. As of January 2, 2026, COMEX gold inventory was 36402970 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 449773368 troy ounces. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were 0.41% and 0.08% respectively [5]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 5, 2026: The US dollar/renminbi central parity rate was 7.02. As of January 2, 2026, the US dollar index was 98.46, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.47%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.19%, VIX was 14.51, the S&P 500 was 6858.47, and NYMEX crude oil was 57.33. Compared with December 31, 2025, the changes were - 0.08%, 0.19%, 0.00%, 0.24%, - 2.94%, 0.19%, and - 0.14% respectively [5]. 5. Market Review - On January 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.4% to 995 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.16% to 18247 yuan/kilogram [5]. 6. Influencing Factor Analysis - The US military strike on Venezuela over the weekend led to increased geopolitical risks and uncertainty in the international order. The recovery of safe - haven demand drove up precious metal prices. The geopolitical situation is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices in the short - term [6]. - The silver spot price maintains a high premium, indicating a tight supply pattern that supports the silver price. However, there may be game risks. It is recommended to pay attention to important US economic data, the new Fed chairperson, and the results of key mineral tariffs [6]. 7. Medium - and Long - Term Viewpoints - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will persist, dollar credit risk will increase, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. Gold prices are likely to move upward, and long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [7].