黑色金属数据日报-20260106

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to be weak in the short term, with prices fluctuating. There is a need to wait for new driving forces. The market for silicon - iron and manganese - silicon is under pressure due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke market has a fifth - round price cut expectation. The iron ore price has limited upside and downside space [3][6][7] - The strategy for steel is to operate within a range, exit short - long positions, and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil spot - futures arbitrage or use option strategies to assist spot procurement and sales. Industrial clients of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon should sell on rallies [9] Summary by Directory Steel - On Monday, both spot and futures prices weakened, and trading volume decreased. Macroscopically, there are few new driving forces and news. The black sector needs new driving forces and capital inflows. Industrially, the supply - demand of five types of steel is weak, but the iron - water output has stabilized and rebounded marginally. The negative pressure on furnace materials caused by the decline in steel output has weakened. The de - stocking pressure of plate products is prominent, which restricts the price increase and the willingness of market participants to hold goods. After January, the iron - water output is more likely to rise, and there will be some restocking behavior, providing support at low prices. The strategy is to view it with a fluctuating mindset, and after January, market capital may be more abundant, which is beneficial for spot - futures positions to enter the market. The spot - futures stop - loss arbitrage of hot - rolled coils can still be rolled [3] Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - On the demand side, as steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are poor, and the iron - water output has a large downward adjustment pressure. The weekly apparent demand for double - silicon has dropped to the lowest point of the year. In the off - season of terminal demand, demand is difficult to improve. On the supply side, although the overall alloy factory profits are poor, the output is still high. The driving force for alloy factories to cut or control production is insufficient, and the medium - term supply surplus pressure remains high. Recently, the output and start - up rate of silicon - iron have declined significantly, and the supply pressure is relatively lighter than that of manganese - silicon. The supply - demand surplus of manganese - silicon is more obvious, and the alloy inventory has continuously reached new highs. Although the silicon - iron inventory has decreased, the overall level is still high. Macroscopically, domestic macro - policies are accelerating, and there are mainly positive stimulus policies. Under the goals of "dual - carbon" and anti - involution, relevant departments have recently mentioned anti - involution, which forms an impact on the supply of double - silicon and cost - support expectations. Overall, the fundamentals of double - silicon are under pressure, and there is a large risk of a downward - falling market [4][6] Coking Coal and Coke - In the spot market, with the decline of the futures price, the expectation of the fifth - round price cut has increased. The online auction of coking coal is mainly concluded at a reduced price. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is quoted at 1440 (- 10), and the coking coal price index is 1252.3 (- 6.4). In the Mongolian coal market, the trading atmosphere is cold, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu port is at a relatively high level without a de - stocking expectation. In the futures market, on the first trading day of the new year, coking coal and coke weakened again. The fourth - round coke warehouse - receipt cost did not form effective support, and funds continued to short - allocate coking coal and coke. Fundamentally, the steel market is still in the off - season, but the market contradiction is not prominent. The steel inventory is normally de - stocked, the output has increased at the beginning of the year, and the iron - water output has bottomed out and rebounded. After the fourth - round price cut of coke, the coking coal auction in the production area still mainly shows a decline, and the downstream has not started to replenish inventory intensively. The coking coal price has insufficient support, and there is still an expectation of a fifth - round price cut. The coke 05 contract has broken through the support at the fourth - round price - cut warehouse - receipt cost, and the futures price may look for support around 1000 - 1050 of coking coal [7] Iron Ore - The iron - water output has remained stable and shows signs of bottoming out. Due to supply - demand factors, the iron ore port inventory will continue to rise, and the price has a clear upward pressure. Recently, the apparent demand for steel has declined slightly, and the total steel inventory is still in the de - stocking state. The downstream data is moderately positive, but considering the situation of iron ore itself, the contradiction of black iron elements is still accumulating, so the overall fluctuation is limited. According to the steel mill maintenance plan and seasonal factors, it is expected that the iron - water output will stabilize, and steel mills will gradually resume production and increase iron - water output in January. Considering that the steel mill's iron ore inventory is at a low level, they will purchase and replenish iron ore before resuming production, so the upward and downward space of the iron ore price is limited [8]