中辉有色观点-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bullish in the short - term [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: High - level adjustment [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish in the short - term [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical events in Venezuela have far - reaching impacts, and the geopolitical premium trading continues. Gold and silver have long - term strategic allocation value. Copper is favored in the medium - and long - term due to supply issues and strategic value. Zinc is supported by positive market sentiment and supply contraction expectations but faces risks of a high - level decline. Other metals have their own supply - demand and market - related characteristics affecting their price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Performance: COMEX gold and silver prices have increased. The Shanghai gold - silver ratio and COMEX gold - silver ratio have decreased. The dollar index has slightly declined, and the gold and silver ETFs and net long positions have changed [2]. - Reasons: The US economic data is weak, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts. There are statements from US officials about the interest rate outlook. There is large - scale physical delivery in the COMEX silver contract, and geopolitical events are escalating [2]. - Strategy: Maintain the view of an upward trend in the short - and long - term. The short - term support for silver is at 17700, and for gold is at 980. Long - term bullish logic remains unchanged, but beware of the risk of the Bloomberg Commodity Index reducing the silver weight [3]. Copper - Market Performance: Shanghai copper has reached a new historical high, and London copper has risen by more than 5% and broken through the 13,000 - dollar mark. Copper prices, trading volumes, and inventories have all changed [5]. - Reasons: The global copper concentrate supply is continuously tight. Labor strikes and project delays have exacerbated the supply shortage. The supply growth rate of refined copper in China may slow down. Although the domestic copper inventory has increased, the market can accept the seasonal inventory accumulation. The high copper price has an obvious inhibitory effect on demand, but the demand in new energy and other fields is expected to be good [6]. - Strategy: In the medium - and long - term, copper is still favored. In the short - term, Shanghai copper is expected to be in the range of [99,500, 105,000] yuan/ton, and London copper in the range of [12,800, 13,500] dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Performance: Shanghai zinc has fluctuated strongly and returned to the 24,000 - yuan mark. Zinc prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [8]. - Reasons: The global zinc ore supply may shrink in 2026. The production of some domestic and foreign mines is affected, and the zinc smelting plant's operation is weak. The demand in the north is weak, but the new - energy field's demand can make up for part of the gap [9]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the zinc price is supported by positive sentiment and supply contraction, but there is a risk of a high - level decline. It is expected to have a wide - range shock in January. It is recommended to take profit in time for long positions and for enterprises to actively carry out selling hedging. Shanghai zinc is expected to be in the range of [23,800, 24,200] yuan/ton, and London zinc in the range of [3,150, 3,250] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The aluminum price has continued to rise, and alumina has stabilized at a low level. Aluminum - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [11]. - Reasons: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. A new electrolytic aluminum project in Inner Mongolia has been put into production, and the inventory has increased. The demand of downstream processing enterprises has declined. The alumina market is in surplus [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the aluminum ingot inventory. The main operation range of aluminum is [22,500 - 24,500] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - Market Performance: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have rebounded and then declined. Nickel - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [15]. - Reasons: There is an expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut overseas. Indonesia has significantly reduced the nickel ore production target, and some mines are suspected of illegal occupation of forest land. The nickel inventory is at a high level. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and the inventory has declined [17]. - Strategy: It is recommended to take profit and wait and see in the short - term, pay attention to the change in the stainless - steel inventory. The main operation range of nickel is [125,000 - 139,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 has opened high and gone high, rising by more than 7%. Lithium - carbonate - related prices, trading volumes, and inventories have changed [19]. - Reasons: The weekly production has increased slightly, the total inventory has decreased slightly, but the production of downstream positive electrode factories has declined. The short - term news is positive, and the supply may not increase as expected [20]. - Strategy: It is expected to operate at a high level in the range of [125,000 - 135,000] yuan/ton [21].