西南期货早间评论-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still weak, but different investment products have different trends. For example, the stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, while the treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [6][9]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close down. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.03% [5]. - Policy and News: The central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5th, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan due to 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 9 - department notice on promoting green consumption was released [5]. - Outlook: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 2.26%, 2.55%, 3.11%, and 2.69% respectively [8]. - Policy and News: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market. It aims to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and enhance corporate governance [9]. - Outlook: The fluctuation center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the gold main contract close at 995 with a 1.78% increase, and the silver main contract close at 18,247 with a 6.87% increase [11]. - Policy and News: The Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented on the employment market, inflation, and economic outlook [11]. - Outlook: The market volatility is expected to significantly increase. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillate. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai thread steel, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [13]. - Supply and Demand: The demand for thread steel is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has eased as the production is at a low level this year. The inventory is higher than last year but the consumption speed is fast. The hot - rolled coil has similar fundamentals [13]. - Outlook: The prices are likely to continue to weakly oscillate. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [15]. - Supply and Demand: The national hot metal daily output has declined in the past two months. The import volume in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the domestic production is lower than in 2024. The port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [15]. - Outlook: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline significantly [17]. - Supply and Demand: After the holiday, domestic coking coal production increased. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weak, and the fourth - round price cut of coke procurement has been implemented. The blast furnace profit is low, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - Outlook: The futures may continue to weakly oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels and manage their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract decline by 0.78% and the silicon - iron main contract decline by 1.37% [19]. - Supply and Demand: The manganese ore supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly at a low level. The production of thread steel by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and the production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five - year period, but the inventory continues to increase [19]. - Outlook: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. Crude Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil decline significantly due to the possible development of Venezuelan oil resources by the US [21]. - Policy and News: The US may have captured the Venezuelan president, and the US oil production reached a record high in October. The OPEC meeting confirmed a suspension of production increase in the first quarter [21]. - Outlook: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline significantly and close below the moving average group. The Asian VLSFO spot discount narrowed, and the HSFO oscillated within a range [23]. - Supply and Demand: The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative for prices. The spot discount narrowing and the possible increase in crude oil prices may support the fuel oil price [24]. - Outlook: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [25]. Polyolefins - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Hangzhou PP market have mixed price movements, and the Yuyao LLDPE price increased [26]. - Supply and Demand: The production enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to price stability [26]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see for now [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract rise by 0.95%. The Shandong mainstream price increased, and the basis was stable [28]. - Supply and Demand: The price increase was supported by the rise in butadiene price and high device operating rate, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased [28][29]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rise by 1.06% and 1.14% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis slightly widened [31]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic supply has stopped, but the overseas pressure remains. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The 20 - rubber delivery supply has expanded [31]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate [32]. PVC - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 0.67%. The spot price was stable, and the basis slightly widened [33]. - Supply and Demand: It is in the traditional off - season. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost support is strong, and the social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side [33][34]. Urea - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract rise by 1.43%. The Shandong Linyi price increased, and the basis was stable [35]. - Supply and Demand: The daily output has slightly increased, and the agricultural demand is expected to increase. The demand from the industrial sector is weak. The inventory has decreased [35]. - Outlook: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the PX2603 main contract decline by 1.23%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are recovering [37]. - Supply and Demand: The PX load is stable, and the inventory is low. The crude oil price may be adjusted due to the US - Venezuela situation [37][38]. - Outlook: It may oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate with caution and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38]. PTA - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 1.87%. The processing fee has recovered [39]. - Supply and Demand: The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has recovered. The export has increased. The cost of crude oil may be uncertain due to geopolitical situations [39]. - Outlook: It may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to operate with caution and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract decline by 2.51% [40]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is increasing, and the demand support is slightly weakening [40][41]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2602 main contract decline by 1.25% [42]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal factories are mainly consuming inventory. The new orders in the weaving sector are weak [42]. - Outlook: It may oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. Bottle - Chip - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2603 main contract decline by 1.46%. The processing fee is around 410 yuan/ton [43]. - Supply and Demand: The bottle - chip factory load has increased, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, but the cost is still the main influencing factor [43]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate following the cost. It is advisable to participate with caution and control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract rise by 7.74% [45]. - Supply and Demand: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased [45]. - Outlook: The price may be supported in the short term, but it is necessary to operate with caution as it is easily affected by news [45]. Copper - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract rise by 2.22% [46]. - Supply and Demand: The global copper supply may be tight due to strikes in Chile. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [46]. - Outlook: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [46]. Aluminum - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract rise by 2.57%, and the alumina main contract decline by 0.72% [48]. - Supply and Demand: The alumina supply is in excess, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand from processing enterprises is weak [48]. - Outlook: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be vigilant about price retracement [48]. Zinc - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract rise by 1.16% [50]. - Supply and Demand: The zinc concentrate processing fee is low, and the refined zinc production may decrease. The overseas supply - demand tension has eased [50]. - Outlook: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise as the consumption off - season is approaching [50]. Lead - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract rise by 0.32% [52]. - Supply and Demand: The supply from primary and secondary lead enterprises is weak, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is low [52][53]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate within a range [54]. Tin - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract rise by 1.05% [55]. - Supply and Demand: The tin supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption in Wa State. The demand has some resilience [55]. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. Nickel - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract rise by 0.71% [56]. - Supply and Demand: The Indonesian nickel policy may increase costs. The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation [56]. - Outlook: It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the soybean meal main contract decline by 0.28% and the soybean oil main contract decline by 0.13% [57]. - Supply and Demand: The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved [57][58]. - Outlook: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the cost - support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options at low levels for soybean oil [58]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rise slightly [59]. - Supply and Demand: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to reach a seven - year high, and the export has decreased. The domestic import has increased [60]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see for now [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: The Canadian rapeseed price increased by more than 1% [62]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high and low level respectively in the past seven years [62]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see for now [63]. Cotton - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the domestic Zhengzhou cotton first rise and then fall. The overseas cotton price rose by 1% [64]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, but the future planting area may decrease. The textile and clothing export has shown some resilience [65][66]. - Outlook: The cotton price is expected to be strong [66]. Sugar - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the Zhengzhou sugar oscillate and rebound, and the overseas raw sugar slightly rebounded [68]. - Supply and Demand: The domestic and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The import volume has changed [69]. - Outlook: The upward space may be limited after the significant rebound [70]. Apples - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the domestic apple futures rise significantly [72]. - Supply and Demand: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season production and quality have declined [73]. - Outlook: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. Pigs - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the national average pig price remain unchanged. The main contract declined by 0.98% [75][76]. - Supply and Demand: The supply of large - scale farms may increase in January, and the demand has weakened after the holiday. The frozen - product inventory has decreased [75][76]. - Outlook: The supply may face great pressure in the first quarter. It is advisable to consider an inverse spread strategy [76]. Eggs - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 1.42% [78]. - Supply and Demand: The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply may improve marginally. The consumption is weak after the New Year's Day [77][78]. - Outlook: It is advisable to consider a positive spread strategy [78]. Corn and Starch - Market Performance: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract decline by 0.22% and the corn starch main contract decline by 0.44% [79]. - Supply and Demand: The North Port corn inventory is low, and the Northeast production area's grain - selling progress is fast. 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