格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260106

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The 12 - month Chinese manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, while the service industry remained below the boom - bust line. The stock market's sharp rise on Monday suppressed bond market bulls, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, Treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, then fell back and fluctuated narrowly around the previous close until the close. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.05%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.03% [1] Important Information - Open Market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [1] - Funds Market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.26% (previous trading day: 1.24%); DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.43% (same as the previous trading day) [1] - Cash Bond Market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield rose 2.91 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year rose 1.31 BP to 1.64%, the 10 - year rose 1.57 BP to 1.86%, and the 30 - year rose 2.93 BP to 2.28% [1] - Central Bank Data: In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market Treasury bond trading operations, marking the third consecutive month of such operations. In December, the central bank conducted 3.5361 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, withdrew 3.4542 trillion yuan, achieving a net injection of 81.9 billion yuan. Other - term reverse repurchases had a net injection of 400 billion yuan. Through MLF, there was a net injection of 100 billion yuan, and through SLF, a net injection of 7.1 billion yuan [1] - US Data: The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [1] Market Logic - In December, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range after eight consecutive months below the boom - bust line. Manufacturing production and demand both entered the expansion range. The December service industry business activity index was 49.7%, remaining below the boom - bust line. The central bank's Q4 monetary policy committee meeting emphasized adjusting the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. The new regulations on fund sales fees are favorable for the bond market. The stock market rose sharply on Monday, suppressing bond market bulls [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [2]