碳酸锂：震荡上行，聚焦供需边际变化，成材：重心下移偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The price center of finished products is moving downward, and they are operating weakly, with an expected trend of oscillating consolidation [1][3] - Lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate upward, and attention should be focused on marginal changes in supply and demand [1][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - to late January, with an expected resumption around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, and a total impact on construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and most others will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [3] - Finished products continued to decline oscillatingly yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak support for prices [3] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate futures were running at a high level. The main contract closed at 129,980 yuan/ton, with trading volume continuously shrinking to 343,600 lots and open interest increasing to 515,300 lots. The net short position of the main force continued. The average price of electric carbon in the spot market was 119,500 yuan/ton, with a negative basis of - 10,480 yuan/ton. The proportion of long - term agreements between upstream and downstream decreased this year. Upstream lithium salt plants are more willing to sell spot orders, while downstream cathode material plants plan to shut down for maintenance during the Spring Festival and mainly adopt a wait - and - see attitude in purchasing [2] - In terms of fundamentals, the weekly operating rate and output of SMM lithium carbonate both increased by 1.2% week - on - week last week, with further release of production capacity. The cost - side support is strengthening, and upstream raw material prices continue to rise. There is a significant structural differentiation on the demand side. The demand for lithium iron phosphate is strong, with high year - on - year production growth and inventory depletion. The demand for ternary materials is weak, with a year - on - year decline in cell production and inventory accumulation in the material sector. The sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles at the terminal reached a new high, providing strong support for lithium carbonate demand. The total inventory of SMM samples decreased by 0.15% week - on - week last week, with a slower depletion slope. The total inventory days remained at 26.1 days, and the inventory structure shifted from the production and consumption ends to the trading end, with the tight inventory pattern remaining unchanged [3] - Policy - wise, the 2026 car trade - in subsidy policy, Fed rate cuts, Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, energy storage "15th Five - Year" key points, and a series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference jointly support long - term supply - demand balance. In the short term, regulatory tightening is clear. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", and combined with the news of mine resumption, the futures price may oscillate upward [4]