蛋白数据日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The estimated ending inventory of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season remains at 290 million bushels, and the inventory-to-consumption ratio is at a relatively low level of 6.7%, providing some support for the lower - end expectation of CB01 US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the adjustments of the US soybean yield and exports in the January USDA supply - and - demand report [8]. - There is no obvious speculative driver for the South American weather in the short term. The weather in the Argentine production area has been dry recently, but the current soil conditions are suitable, with no obvious adverse effects in the short term. Continued observation is needed. The soybean sowing in Brazil is almost finished, and harvesting has begun in Paraná state. Given the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans, attention should be paid to the impact of the selling pressure during the January harvest on the Brazilian CNP premium. The sum of the US market price and the Brazilian premium is expected to have further downside potential. Without special events, the MO5 is still expected to be relatively weak [9]. - In China, the de - stocking of soybeans in January is expected to accelerate. There are concerns about the shortage of soybeans in the first quarter and the extension of customs inspections. The pre - holiday stocking expectation of downstream enterprises is relatively positive, which is beneficial to supporting the domestic spot price trend before the Spring Festival. The concentrated ownership of imported soybeans in the first quarter brings a structural supply problem in China, which supports the M03. The M03 - N06 is still short - term positive arbitrage, with the risk lying in policy changes. Due to the stricter customs inspection policy, the supply delay and shutdown problems, as well as the specific quantity, price and shipping rhythm of imported soybean auctions or directed sales, are difficult to predict. Investors are advised to operate with caution [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - The basis data of the main soybean meal contract in different regions on January 5th shows that the basis in Dalian is 406 with a decrease of 5; in Tianjin is 386 with a decrease of 5; in Rizhao is 326 with a decrease of 25. The 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang is 346 with a decrease of 25, etc [6]. - The spread data includes the RM1 - 5 spread, the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread (spot and on the main contract), etc. For example, the RM1 - 5 spread is 252, and the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in the factory area is 300 [7]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The 2025 soybean CNF premium in different months in Brazil and the corresponding import soybean gross margin in the same year are presented, along with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the corresponding disk crushing profit [7]. - The inventory data shows the soybean inventory in Chinese ports, the soybean inventory in major domestic oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of feed enterprises, and the soybean meal inventory in major domestic oil mills from 2020 to 2025 [7]. 3.3开机 and压榨情况 (开机 and Pressing Conditions) - The data of the soybean pressing volume and the operating rate of major domestic oil mills from 2020 to 2025 are provided [7]