郑棉冲高回落，白糖延续震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to Bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The downstream spindle capacity expansion has increased domestic cotton consumption. With high production and consumption expected in the new year and low cotton imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Considering the possible significant decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, the medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be bullish. However, short - term price increases driven by funds may lead to high - level corrections [2]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar market is facing downward pressure. Although the current valuation is low, the worst period of domestic pressure has not yet arrived, and there may be another bottom - seeking. However, the overall decline is expected to be limited, and the short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5]. - Pulp: Overseas supply disruptions continue, and the US dollar quotes are rising. With the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expected, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upward space depends on the actual improvement of demand and the digestion of port inventory [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,442 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 787; the national average price was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 960. - Market Information: As of December 18, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the expected annual export volume, and had shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01%. The CCI in India had cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, with 39% from Telangana. Converted to lint, it was about 998,000 tons [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small. In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory increased slightly. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, the short - term supply pressure was high, and global textile consumption was weak. The signing progress of US cotton exports was slow, and the ICE US cotton was expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, US cotton was in a low - valuation range, with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers [1]. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly. As the sales progress of new cotton accelerated, the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased. On the demand side, with the approaching of the two festivals, yarn mills and traders stocked up actively, but downstream orders declined, finished product sales slowed down, and inventory in the industrial chain, especially in the grey fabric segment, increased significantly, showing a marginal weakening trend [1]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5257 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 73; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 57. - Market Information: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year. As of mid - December 2025, Uttar Pradesh had produced 3.586 million tons of sugar, an increase of 306,000 tons from the same period last year. Maharashtra had 197 sugar mills in operation, with a sugar production of 4.861 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 62%. Karnataka's sugar production had also increased by about 12% compared with the same period last year [3]. Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: In the 25/26 season, global sugar production was abundant, and the global sugar market was in a definite surplus. In the short term, due to the accelerated harvest in Brazil, limited exports from India, and the just - started harvest in Thailand, the downward space of raw sugar was limited, but the surplus pattern restricted its rebound momentum, and there was no sign of a trend reversal in the short - to - medium - term. In the long - term, there were uncertainties in weather and the sugar - making ratio next year. Some institutions predicted a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area was expected to shrink, so the long - term sugar price should not be overly pessimistic [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: Domestic sugar production was expected to increase for the third consecutive year. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi had gradually started production, and the supply showed a seasonal increase. On the import side, the profit of out - of - quota imports from Brazil remained high, and imports increased in the second half of the year, increasing the supply pressure. However, the control policy on syrup had become stricter this year, and the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was expected to further decrease next year [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5530 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 60. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 355. - Market Information: The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with individual prices fluctuating. The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted slightly downward in a narrow range. Traders in the imported softwood pulp spot market were willing to sell but were reluctant to sell at low prices due to profit considerations, so most prices remained stable, with only individual grades in the Shandong market adjusting by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In the imported hardwood pulp spot market, traders were actively raising prices due to rising arrival costs and tight available supplies, with high - end prices in the Guangdong market rising by 50 yuan/ton. The imported unbleached pulp market was trading smoothly, with prices remaining stable. The price of imported chemimechanical pulp increased in some areas with slightly tight supplies, with prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong rising by 50 yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There had been continuous news of overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed its Crofton paper mill in British Columbia, Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a 650,000 - ton softwood pulp capacity temporarily shut down on December 15 and was expected to gradually resume production on January 7 next year. In addition, its subsidiary Finnforest was preparing for a major production cut at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7]. - Demand: In November, the wood pulp inventory at European ports continued to decline, and demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, and downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with low procurement willingness, resulting in high port inventory. However, port inventory had been declining in recent weeks, and the continuous expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year would create marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials, which might support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [7].