2026A股开门红，地缘扰动下贵金属走强

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After the A - share market opened in 2026, precious metals strengthened under geopolitical disturbances. There are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market showed an overall upward trend on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. The report suggests focusing on commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals and also mentions investment strategies for commodities and stock index futures [2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing. The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" measures. Future price recovery depends on supply - side policies. After important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings. The geopolitical situation tightened during the New Year's Day holiday, which may drive up commodity prices. On January 5, the market trended upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index up nearly 3% [2] - There is a divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has declined since October, but China's exports and new orders are still positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI were better than expected, but new export orders in the service industry contracted. The US economic data was generally weak [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metal sector remains unresolved, and aluminum is a preferred choice within the sector. In the energy sector, the focus is on future crude oil supply growth after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, monitor weather and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips, but be aware that short - term silver risks have increased [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips for stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5] To - do News - The market trended upward on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, the ChiNext Index up nearly 3%, and the CSI A500 Index up over 2%. More than 4100 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.57 trillion. China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, remaining in the expansion range but with new export orders contracting. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and Trump said he would "manage" Venezuela and involve in the oil industry. OPEC+ will maintain the oil supply unchanged in the first quarter. Some commodity futures prices rose significantly, while others declined [6]