下游刚需采购，铅价维持震荡格局

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Option: Sell wide straddle [4] Core View of the Report - At the end of the year, the supply - demand weakness pattern of the lead variety is more obvious. Driven by the overall rise in the non - ferrous sector, the demand off - season becomes even weaker. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate between 16,900 and 17,800 yuan in January 2026 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On January 5, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$46.54/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 125 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 150 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 150 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells changed by 50 yuan/ton to 10,100 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells changed by 25 yuan/ton to 10,375 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On January 5, 2026, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,365 yuan/ton and closed at 17,395 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 38,065 lots, a change of - 39,893 lots from the previous trading day. The position was 47,544 lots, a change of 2,132 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,300 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,385 yuan/ton and closed at 17,455 yuan/ton, a 0.34% increase from the previous afternoon's close. The SMM1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures fluctuated weakly. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price had difficulty in成交. Traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventory was low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex - factory sales. In Guangdong, holders' ex - factory sources were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for成交 [2] Inventory - On January 5, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 19,000 tons, a change of 600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 236,900 tons, a change of - 2,600 tons from the previous trading day [3]