需求偏淡无改铜价偏强格局

Group 1: Investment Rating - Copper investment strategy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Options strategy: Sell put options [9] Group 2: Core View - The current copper market is characterized by tight mine - end supply, increased refined copper exports due to foreign market premiums, and relatively reluctant selling of scrap copper. Although demand is weak due to high prices and holidays, downstream restocking enthusiasm is expected to pick up if copper prices fall. [9] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 5, 2026, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 99,450 yuan/ton and closed at 101,350 yuan/ton, a 3.17% increase from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 100,890 yuan/ton and closed at 102,650 yuan/ton, a 1.28% increase from the afternoon close. [2] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper for the January 2026 contract ranged from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 35 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price was between 100,250 - 100,900 yuan/ton. The intraday spot premium first rose and then fell. [3] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: Switzerland has frozen the assets of Maduro and related individuals, which may boost the allocation value of physical assets. - Economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 dropped from 48.2 to 47.9, hitting a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders are weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months. - Mine end: The Union2 of the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and during the strike, the mine's output is expected to drop to 30% of the normal level. [4] Smelting and Import - The 500,000 - ton/year direct - smelting copper smelter of Kamoa - Kakula produced its first batch of anode copper on December 29, 2025. The smelter's capacity ramp - up will continue throughout 2026 and is expected to reach full capacity by the end of the year. The project is expected to produce 380,000 - 420,000 tons of copper ore in 2026. [5] Consumption - Copper demand is increasingly dependent on electrification, energy transition investment, electric vehicle adoption, grid expansion, and AI - dominated data center infrastructure. Copper supply is the key constraint. Even with moderate demand growth, prices may fluctuate sharply. [6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 142,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,507 tons to 90,282 tons. On January 5, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 257,600 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons from the previous week. [7][8] Strategy - For copper, it is recommended to conduct batch - by - batch, buy - hedging on dips between 97,000 yuan/ton and 97,500 yuan/ton. [9]