现货升贴水坚挺

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - After the holiday, the spot price of zinc rose sharply. Although the social inventory increased slightly, the supply remained tight. Traders were reluctant to sell, and downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. The domestic smelter's comprehensive smelting loss widened, and the supply pressure decreased significantly. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. The market is optimistic about future consumption, with unchanged expectations of interest rate cuts and unreflected re - inflation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Data - LME zinc spot premium is -$36.25/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,970 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of 105 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,870 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 5 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,890 yuan/ton, up 680 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of 35 yuan/ton [1] Futures Data - On 2026 - 01 - 05, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,435 yuan/ton and closed at 23,820 yuan/ton, up 525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 141,147 lots, and the open interest was 89,942 lots. The highest price was 23,930 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 23,400 yuan/ton [2] Inventory Data - As of 2026 - 01 - 05, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 105,850 tons, down 475 tons from the previous trading day [3]