资产配置快评：开年话躁动——总量创辩第 119 期

Macro Insights - The current macro liquidity phase is expected to decline, with government bond growth and loan growth likely to marginally decrease, leading to a continuous decline in M2 year-on-year in Q1[1] - The recent slight increase in market volatility suggests that the most accommodative macro liquidity period is passing, which historically impacts asset valuations negatively[1] - The current economic cycle shows that the midstream sector is the most stable, as its demand is less sensitive to domestic liquidity conditions, potentially benefiting from supply-side contractions[1] Asset Allocation - International experience indicates that current 10-year bond yields are still below reasonable international levels, while the stock-bond ratio suggests stocks have a comparative advantage in allocation[1] - If liquidity contraction impacts "expensive" assets, bonds may be considered "expensive" as long as the economic cycle continues to improve marginally[1] - The strategic view remains to favor stocks over bonds, maintaining a cautious stance on bonds[2] Market Strategy - The spring market rally is primarily driven by liquidity, with expectations of limited pullbacks due to macro liquidity stability[3] - Key focus areas include real estate, exchange rates, local government meetings, local bond issuance, and U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[3] - Recommended sectors for investment include non-bank financials, technology manufacturing, and cyclical sectors like coal and non-ferrous metals[3] Fixed Income Strategy - The expected net financing of government bonds in Q1 is around CNY 3.6 trillion, with January and March being peak months[4] - The demand for bonds is anticipated to be better than Q1 2025 due to the "opening red" effect from deposits and insurance premiums[4] - The bond market is expected to show a downward trend in yields, with a focus on ticket interest strategies remaining favorable[4]