银泰证券研究所日报-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overweight A-shares and H-shares [10] - Bullish on the steady appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, with a 12 - month target of 6.85 [10] 2. Core View of the Report - Goldman Sachs' forecast for China's economic growth in 2026 (real GDP growth of 4.8%) is higher than the market consensus of 4.5%. The prediction is based on expected policy easing and the strong resilience of the export sector. Net exports' contribution to growth is expected to narrow, while consumption and investment will support domestic demand. The real - estate market's decline remains a drag, but its negative impact is expected to weaken [8]. - China is in a profound structural transformation. New growth drivers are emerging as traditional engines (exports to the US and real - estate) have declined. The export sector has diversified, and the current account surplus is expected to expand. Domestic consumption growth may slow, but government consumption is expected to accelerate. Fixed - asset investment is expected to rebound. The real - estate and labor markets are the main challenges in 2026 [9]. - China's macro - policy will maintain a "gradual" and "flexible" easing mode. Fiscal policy will be the main force for "stabilizing growth", and the stock market has room for further growth [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Central Bank and Market Liquidity - After the holiday, the central bank conducted net withdrawals of funds. On January 5, the 7 - day pledged repurchase amount was only 135 million yuan with a 1.4% interest rate, and the net withdrawal was 46.88 billion yuan. After two days of net withdrawals, the OMO stock fell below 60 billion yuan. The post - holiday capital price declined, and market liquidity was generally abundant [2]. International and Domestic Stock Market Performance - On the first trading day of the new year, the A - share market had a good start. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38% to 4023.42 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.24%, and the total trading volume of the two markets was 2546.271 billion yuan, an increase of 501.129 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The ChiNext Index rose 2.85%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 4.41%. Asian stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and China led the gains, and European and American major stock indexes also closed higher. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.09% and 0.03% respectively [3]. Bond Yields and Interest Rates - The yield of the 10 - year China Treasury bond was 1.8592%, up 0.84 BP. The average daily prices of R001 and R007 in the inter - bank market were 1.3315% and 1.4861% respectively [3]. Sector Performance - Media, pharmaceutical biology, electronics, and non - bank finance led the gains, with increases of 4.12%, 3.85%, 3.69%, and 3.14% respectively. Petroleum and petrochemicals, banks, and transportation led the losses, with declines of 1.29%, 0.34%, and 1.3% respectively [3]. Exchange Rates - The US dollar index closed at 98.3291, down 0.13%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9829, and the offshore RMB depreciated by 130 basis points [4]. Goldman Sachs' Forecast for China's Economy in 2026 - Policy: China's macro - policy will be "gradually" and "flexibly" eased. Monetary policy will be moderately relaxed, and fiscal policy will be the main force for "stabilizing growth". The net issuance of government bonds is expected to increase, focusing on consumer infrastructure, people's livelihood, urban renewal, and major projects [10]. - Growth: Real GDP growth is expected to reach 4.8%, higher than the market consensus. Net exports' contribution to growth will narrow, and consumption and investment will support domestic demand. The real - estate market's decline will continue to be a drag, but its negative impact will weaken [8]. - Market: Overweight A - shares and H - shares. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline more than long - term interest rates, and the yield curve may steepen. The RMB is expected to appreciate steadily against the US dollar [10].