供需改善有限，制约反弹空间

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PE, short - term sentiment boost and cost - side disturbances drive the price to stop falling and rebound, but limited improvement in supply - demand fundamentals restricts the rebound space. The supply pressure increases due to new device production, limited planned maintenance, and expected increase in low - price imported goods, while the demand is weak as it's the off - season, and the downstream开工 rate continues to decline [1][2]. - For PP, short - term market sentiment turning warm, supply - side shrinkage expectations, and cost - side support drive the price to stop falling and rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory levels. The short - term rebound depends on the increase in supply - side maintenance scale, but the price rebound space may be limited due to insufficient demand improvement [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Price and basis: L main contract closed at 6449 yuan/ton (-23), PP main contract at 6330 yuan/ton (-18). LL North China spot was 6400 yuan/ton (+100), LL East China spot at 6480 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot at 6190 yuan/ton (+30). LL North China basis was - 49 yuan/ton (+123), LL East China basis at 31 yuan/ton (+103), PP East China basis at - 140 yuan/ton (+48) [1]. - Upstream supply: PE开工 rate was 83.2% (+0.6%), PP开工 rate was 76.7% (-0.1%) [1]. - Production profit: PE oil - based production profit was 64.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PP oil - based production profit was - 415.5 yuan/ton (+78.3), PDH - made PP production profit was - 828.8 yuan/ton (-35.7) [1]. - Import and export: LL import profit was 99.3 yuan/ton (-2.5), PP import profit was - 351.2 yuan/ton (+7.4), PP export profit was - 22.4 US dollars/ton (-0.9) [1]. - Downstream demand: PE downstream agricultural film开工 rate was 39.0% (-4.9%), PE downstream packaging film开工 rate was 48.4% (+0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工 rate was 43.1% (-0.6%), PP downstream BOPP film开工 rate was 63.2% (+0.0%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis - PE: Short - term sentiment and cost factors drive the price to stop falling, but the supply - demand situation is unfavorable. New device production and expected increase in imports increase supply, while downstream demand remains weak as it's the off - season, and the开工 rate is expected to decline further [2]. - PP: Market sentiment, supply - side expectations, and cost support drive the price to rebound. However, the supply - demand contradiction is large, with high inventory and limited downstream demand improvement [3]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: LLDPE and PP are under the "wait - and - see" strategy. The short - term may continue the volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of upstream device maintenance [4]. - Inter - period: Not provided - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high [4]