现货交投好转，盘面仍偏承压

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot trading of propylene has improved, but the futures market remains under pressure. The supply of propylene remains high, with stable upstream production. There is a potential for a phased reduction in supply pressure in January due to planned PDH unit maintenance. On the demand side, downstream purchases have increased, leading to better spot trading. The demand for propylene from the PP sector is expected to rise, and the operating rates of some downstream products are expected to increase. However, the overall improvement in demand may be limited. The cost side is affected by geopolitical tensions in the international oil market and the increase in the official price of propane from Saudi Aramco, strengthening cost support. But with limited improvement in the supply - demand fundamentals, the futures market is likely to remain under pressure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the market may fluctuate within a range until the marginal unit maintenance is realized [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure includes information on the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the Shandong basis, and the spreads between different contracts (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05). The propylene main contract closed at 5821 yuan/ton (-14), the East China spot price was 5850 yuan/ton (+0), and the North China spot price was 5775 yuan/ton (+45). The East China basis was 29 yuan/ton (-36), and the North China basis was - 154 yuan/ton (-79) [1][5][12] 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Propylene production profit and operating rate data involve multiple indicators such as the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, PDH production profit and capacity utilization, MTO production profit and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, and naphtha cracking production profit and crude oil refinery capacity utilization. The propylene operating rate was 75% (+0%), China's propylene CFR - Japan's naphtha CFR was 212 dollars/ton (+6), and the import profit was - 310 yuan/ton (-2) [1][21][24] 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - For propylene downstream products, data on production profit and operating rate are provided for various products. PP powder operating rate was 38% (+0.77%) with a production profit of - 25 yuan/ton (-45); epoxy propane operating rate was 74% (-1%) with a production profit of - 159 yuan/ton (-82); n - butanol operating rate was 81% (+1%) with a production profit of 458 yuan/ton (-27); octanol operating rate was 82% (-3%) with a production profit of 820 yuan/ton (-32); acrylic acid operating rate was 83% (+3%) with a production profit of 322 yuan/ton (+36); acrylonitrile operating rate was 78% (-2%) with a production profit of - 817 yuan/ton (-100); and phenol - acetone operating rate was 81% (+3%) with a production profit of - 876 yuan/ton (+0) [1][40][41] 3.4 Propylene Inventory - Propylene inventory data includes the factory inventory of propylene and PP powder. The propylene factory inventory was 47790 tons (+1780) [1][61][62]