工业硅震荡下行，多晶硅挺价上涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction, while the downside is limited by cost support and production - cut expectations [4] - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production schedules, and long - term attention to the implementation of storage policies and inventory reduction progress [8] 3. Content Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated down. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,910 yuan/ton and closed at 8,860 yuan/ton, a change of (-15) yuan/ton or (-0.17)% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 203,994 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 4, 2026 was 10,231 lots, a change of 204 lots from the previous day [2] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 18 was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week [2] - Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. Some northern silicon enterprises had production - cut plans, and the expected production of industrial silicon in January was to decrease month - on - month. The weekly output of silicone enterprises changed little, and silicone monomer enterprises had been reducing loads and production since early December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, but the downstream demand of aluminum alloy was weakening marginally [3] - Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, with the upside and downside limited as described above [4] Polysilicon - Market Analysis - On January 5, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated up, opening at 57,660 yuan/ton and closing at 57,920 yuan/ton, a change of 1.03% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 76,368 lots (83,335 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 23,571 lots [5] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.60 (with a month - on - month change of 0.90%), the silicon wafer inventory was 23.19GW (a month - on - month change of 6.92%), the weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons (a month - on - month change of -5.10%), and the silicon wafer output was 10.18GW (a month - on - month change of -1.45%) [5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components of different types are provided, with some prices remaining stable and some showing small changes [5][6][7] - Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in this range [8]