烧碱主力下游下调采购价，PVC政策装置扰动

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak, but the release of the draft for comments on the differential electricity price policy in Shaanxi and overseas device outages support the PVC futures to rebound. The policy has not directly impacted the current PVC supply, and its implementation needs continuous attention. The domestic PVC supply is abundant, downstream开工 has declined slightly, and social inventory has increased slightly. The overall supply - demand of PVC remains weak, and it is expected to rebound with the macro - sentiment. [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a downward trend. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu has increased. The supply - side is operating at a high level, and the demand - side has general receiving sentiment. The demand for caustic soda may decline in the long - term due to the anti - involution policy of alumina. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine prices, device dynamics, and the implementation of macro anti - involution details. [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4764 yuan/ton (- 41). The East China basis is - 284 yuan/ton (+ 31), and the South China basis is - 234 yuan/ton (+ 31). [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4480 yuan/ton (- 10), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (- 20). [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 750 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+ 0), the calcium carbide profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 0), the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 714 yuan/ton (+ 47), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 279 yuan/ton (+ 56), and the PVC export profit is - 15.6 US dollars/ton (+ 0.2). [1] - Inventory and开工: The in - factory PVC inventory is 30.9 tons (+ 0.3), the social PVC inventory is 52.5 tons (+ 1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 77.46% (+ 0.45%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 70.73% (- 3.33%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 75.42% (- 0.70%). [1] - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 81.6 tons (+ 0.9). [1] Strategy - Single - side: Rebound with the macro - sentiment [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2164 yuan/ton (- 78), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton (+ 37). [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1090 yuan/ton (+ 0). [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1131 yuan/ton (+ 0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 604.0 yuan/ton (+ 40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 287.95 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 555.00 yuan/ton (+ 0.00). [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 48.57 tons (+ 4.35), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+ 0.05), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 86.40% (+ 0.40%). [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.67% (- 0.47%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 60.81% (- 0.47%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 85.05% (- 1.98%). [2] Strategy - Single - side: Oscillate weakly [5] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [5] - Inter - variety: None [5]