现实库存压力仍高，关注MTO装置动向

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The real inventory pressure in the port area remains high, and the window for the port to flow back to the mainland is closed, dragging down port pick - up. Although the Iranian methanol plant is operating at a low level, the actual decline in shipping volume due to plant maintenance needs further confirmation, and the decline rate of shipping volume in December is still slow. There are concerns about the possible maintenance of Xingxing's MTO plant [2]. - Downstream demand in the mainland is in the seasonal off - season, and factory inventories are gradually rebuilding. Coal - based production maintains high operation rates, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of southwest gas - based plants in the middle and late ten - days. The seasonal low of pending orders in the northwest drags down the pick - up demand for port - to - mainland back - flow. Among traditional downstream industries, the acetic acid operation rate has rebounded from the bottom, the MTBE operation rate is still acceptable, and the formaldehyde operation rate has declined slightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - Period Structure - The report presents charts of methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][9][21] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - The report shows charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference, and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][26][33] 3.3 Methanol Operation Rate and Inventory - The report provides charts of methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operation rate (including integrated plants), mainland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operation rate (including integrated plants) [34][43] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - The report includes charts of price differences in different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [40][48][52] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows charts of production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][58] 3.6 Strategies - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when it is low [4] - Cross - variety: Narrow the spread of LL2605 - 3*MA2605 when it is high [4]