地缘事件频出，贵金属再冲高

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical events and economic data may boost the allocation value of physical assets such as gold, and the market's risk sentiment has increased, leading to a potential increase in the demand for gold investment. It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the silver price will also maintain a volatile and upward pattern, with the gold-silver ratio expected to narrow [1][8] Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: Switzerland has frozen all assets held by Maduro and related individuals in Switzerland, which may further promote the allocation value of physical assets such as gold [1] - Economic data: The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. New orders have contracted for four consecutive months, export orders remain weak, and employment has declined for 11 consecutive months [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 991.00 yuan/gram and closed at 995.00 yuan/gram, a change of 1.78% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1001.60 yuan/gram, a 0.66% increase from the afternoon close [2] - On January 5, 2026, the Shanghai silver main contract opened at 18,200.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 18,247.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 6.87% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 671,811 lots, and the open interest was 238,881 lots. The night session closed at 18,745 yuan/kilogram, a 2.73% decrease from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 5, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.165%, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.71%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the SHFE - On the Au2602 contract, the long positions changed by 214 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by -2,347 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contract on the previous trading day was 191,025 lots, a change of -27.68% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by 9,187 lots, and the short positions changed by 3,136 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,079,343 lots, a change of -6.54% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 1,065.13 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,444 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On January 5, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 4.45 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -834.29 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was approximately 54.53, a change of 5.27% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 59.11, a change of 2.03% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 44,012 kilograms, a change of -29.34% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 657,430 kilograms, a change of -2.87% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 9,030 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly show a volatile and upward trend in the near future, and the Au2602 contract's oscillation range may be between 970 yuan/gram and 1020 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward pattern, and the Ag2604 contract's oscillation range may be between 18,400 yuan/kilogram and 19,400 yuan/kilogram. The gold-silver ratio is expected to narrow [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]