Changjiang Securities·2026-01-06 04:45Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - The expectation for the real estate market in China is stabilizing, with a focus on improving and managing market expectations [6][21] - The two leading fiberglass companies, China Jushi and China National Materials, have implemented stock incentive plans, reflecting their operational confidence [7] - The cement shipment has experienced a seasonal decline, while glass inventory has decreased month-on-month [8] Summary by Sections Real Estate Market Expectations - A commentary published in "Qiushi" emphasizes the financial attributes of real estate and its importance in the national economy and household wealth, suggesting that policies should be decisive to stabilize market expectations [6][21] Stock Incentives of Leading Companies - China Jushi announced a restricted stock incentive plan for up to 34.53 million shares, accounting for 0.86% of its total shares, with a target compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2026 to 2028 set at no less than 38.5%, 27.0%, and 22.0% respectively [7] - China National Materials proposed a stock option incentive plan for 15.4 million shares, representing 0.92% of its total shares, with a target CAGR for net profit from 2026 to 2028 set at no less than 107.0%, 73.0%, and 62.5% respectively [7] Market Fundamentals - Cement: The average shipment rate for major domestic cement companies was approximately 40.1% at the end of December, down 1.1 percentage points month-on-month and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Glass: The production capacity of float glass decreased, with 212 out of 265 production lines operational, and daily melting capacity reduced to 151,405 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous week [8] Outlook for 2026 - Focus on three main lines: - Stock Chain: Emphasizing demand optimization and supply clearance, with renovation demand expected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030 [9] - Africa Chain: Highlighting undervalued growth in Africa, with recommendations for companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [9] - AI Chain: Anticipating upgrades in special electronic fabrics, with a focus on companies like China National Materials [9]