如何展望钢铁成本和供给侧的催化和节奏？

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [9] Core Insights - The report highlights that the expansion of low-cost capacities, such as Simandou and the four major mines, is expected to drive long-term declines in iron ore prices. A significant drop in prices is anticipated in March and April, with current iron ore inventories at historical highs, suggesting a potentially larger decline [2][6] - The steel industry is experiencing a reduction in supply pressure due to self-initiated production cuts, leading to a slight improvement in profitability despite weak demand in the construction steel sector. Total steel demand is supported by resilient plate demand, with a year-on-year decline of 3.57% and a month-on-month decline of 0.56% in apparent consumption [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side policies aimed at reducing low-end exports and eliminating outdated capacities, with a focus on environmental and energy efficiency evaluations expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [2][6] Summary by Sections Cost Analysis - The black industrial chain's profits are largely captured by iron ore, with total profits estimated at 4,127 billion for iron ore, 337 billion for coking coal, and 1,264 billion for steel, representing 72%, 6%, and 22% of total profits respectively. The majority of iron ore is imported, leading to a significant outflow of profits overseas [5] - The Simandou project is expected to begin production by the end of 2025, with anticipated sales of 30 million tons from the northern mine and 5 to 10 million tons from the southern mine in 2026, contributing to a projected 4.3% increase in global iron ore supply [5] Supply Analysis - The report indicates that the steel industry is focused on reducing excess capacity, with policies aimed at "grading management and eliminating the weak" expected to be implemented in 2026. Non-compliant enterprises may face significant production cuts, highlighting the importance of regulatory compliance [6] - The report notes that the overall steel inventory has decreased by 2.70% week-on-week, while year-on-year it has increased by 12.34%, indicating a gradual reduction in inventory levels [4]