生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260106

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar market is in a state of oversupply, but concerns about a decline in Guangxi sugar production may support domestic sugar prices. Zheng sugar short - positions are advised to exit and wait and see [3]. - The supply pressure of pulp is gradually easing, and the cost of new warehouse receipts is rising, which is expected to drive up the bottom of the futures price. However, due to high inventory and weak paper mill profits, it is difficult to form a trending upward market in the short term. Short - term operations can consider long - positions at low levels in the range [3][4]. - The spot price of offset paper remains stable, and the futures price may fluctuate with the basis. As the basis narrows, the upward space of the futures price may be limited. Consider short - positions near the pressure level [5][6]. - The global cotton supply is abundant, and the domestic cotton market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The short - term supply is sufficient, but there is a long - term support due to the expected decline in planting area. It is recommended to hold long - positions in the 05 contract cautiously [9]. - The apple 05 contract is facing a game between supply decline and the off - season of consumption, maintaining a high - level range expectation. It is recommended to adopt the idea of buying on dips [10]. - The market's expectation of a decline in jujube production has cooled, and the consumption season is approaching. Aggressive investors can consider short - term long - positions in the 2609 contract near 8900 - 9000 points [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Recommend buying on dips. The new - season output, good - fruit rate, and peak value have declined year - on - year, but the driving force for consumption growth is insufficient. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 10000 - 10200 [20]. - Jujube 2605: Recommend short - term long - positions at low levels. The expectation of production decline may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 8500 - 8600, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [20]. - Sugar 2605: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar - cane pressing season is underway. The market is worried about the decline in production and sugar - making rate this season, weakening short - position confidence. The support range is 5000 - 5030, and the pressure range is 5300 - 5330 [20]. - Pulp 2605: Recommend long - positions in the range. The futures price has risen above the price of the main physical delivery product, increasing potential delivery pressure. There is limited improvement in the fundamentals, but there is support below. The support range is 5300 - 5400, and the pressure range is 5600 - 5800 [20]. - Offset Paper 2605: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. Raw material fluctuations affect the price of offset paper from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 3900 - 4000, and the pressure range is 4200 - 4300 [20]. - Cotton 2605: Recommend holding long - positions cautiously. The external market is operating at a low level, the domestic market expectation is positive, and the long - term bullish expectation is strong. The futures price is expected to move up. The support range is 13500 - 13600, and the pressure range is 15400 - 15500 [20]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In November 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 121,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.28% and a year - on - year increase of 12.42%. As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of apple cold storage in the main producing areas was 7.021 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 106,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 857,800 tons [21]. - Spot Market Situation: The price of late - maturing bagged Fuji in Shandong is stable, and the overall shipment has slightly increased. The price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 in Qixia is 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. The price in Shaanxi is also stable, and the trading volume of cold - storage merchants has increased. The price of bagged Fuji 70 in Luochuan is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The arrival volume in the sales area has slightly decreased, and the price is stable [21][22][23]. 3.2.2 Jujube Market As of one week before New Year's Day, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 15,898 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 37.17%. The acquisition in Xinjiang is coming to an end, and the market supply is increasing. The overall sales in the sales area are stable, showing a pattern of "overall stability and local dynamic adjustment" [24]. 3.2.3 Sugar Market As of December 31, 2025, the sugar - cane crushing volume in India was 133.921 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24%, and the sugar production was 11.83 million tons. From the beginning of the 2025/26 season to December 27, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in Thailand was 14.0733 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.71%, and the sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.83%. As of December, the cumulative sugar production in Guangdong was 86,600 tons, and the sugar - making rate was 8.72%. India's domestic sugar sales quota in January 2026 was 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared with January 2025 [27]. 3.2.4 Pulp Market In November 2025, the total import volume of pulp was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.0% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. The total export volume of Brazilian hardwood pulp was 1.6206 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.0%. The export volume to China was 636,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% [29]. 3.2.5 Offset Paper Market The inventory days of offset paper increased by 0.76% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.93 percentage points. The social demand is still weak, and the inventory pressure has increased. The operating rate is 55.24%, a month - on - month increase of 1.02 percentage points, and the increase rate expanded by 0.23 percentage points [30]. 3.2.6 Cotton Market The sowing progress in the Argentine cotton area has reached about 90%, and the final planting area is estimated to be between 380,000 and 430,000 hectares. The new - cotton planting progress in Brazil is about 25%, basically the same as the same period last year, and the final sown area is expected to be between 2.05 million and 2.1 million hectares. As of now this year, the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, accounting for about 20% of the total estimated output [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9547 | 427 | 4.68% | | Jujube 2605 | 8955 | - 10 | - 0.11% | | Sugar 2605 | 5257 | 6 | 0.11% | | Pulp 2605 | 5530 | - 2 | - 0.04% | | Cotton 2605 | 14655 | 70 | 0.48% | [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan per catty) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Jujube (yuan per kilogram) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan per ton) | 5330 | - 20 | - 710 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5580 | 0 | - 870 | | Offset Paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4450 | 0 | - 500 | | Cotton (yuan per ton) | 15615 | 30 | 888 | [39] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures are mentioned, such as the basis of Apple 5 - month contract, Jujube main contract, etc. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - Monthly Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Prediction | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1026 | - 30 | 1313 | Oscillating strongly | Buying on dips | | Jujube | 9 - 1 | - 45 | 145 | - 710 | Range - bound | Waiting and seeing | | Sugar | 1 - 5 | 21 | 8 | - 39 | Oscillating | Waiting and seeing | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 190 | - 15 | - 25 | Oscillating weakly | Selling on rallies | [57] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data summary provided, only figures about the top 20 long - positions, short - positions, trading volume, etc. of each variety are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 2102 | - 18 | 148 | | Sugar | 6005 | 823 | - 4775 | | Pulp | 115576 | 11089 | - 224540 | | Cotton | 6118 | 406 | 2531 | [83] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - Related Data No specific data summary provided, only figures about option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, etc. of apple, sugar, and cotton are mentioned.